GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3266 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3238 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 1.3147 @ 06:24 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 1.3077/3002 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.2970 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16
GBPUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. The recent move down is considered corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2970. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high. First key support to watch is 1.3002, the Sep 11 low.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report |
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Producer Prices |
| 15-Aug | 0700 | Jun | GDP / Trade/ Services/ Production / Construction |
| 15-Aug | 0700 | Q2 | GDP First Estimate |
| 16-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 19-Aug | - | DMO to hold quarterly investors / GEMM consultation | |
| 21-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 23-Aug | 2000 | BOE's Bailey Speech at Jackson Hole | |
| 27-Aug | 0001 | Aug | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 30-Aug | 0930 | Jul | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 02-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Sep | 0001 | Aug | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Aug | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production / GDP (p) |
| 16-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 20-Aug | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 22-Aug | 815 | FR | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 830 | DE | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23-Aug | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Aug | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 24-Aug | 1725 | EU | ECB's Lane in panel on transmission of monetary policy |
| 25-Aug | 1600 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel at the Rimini Meeting |
| 26-Aug | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-Aug | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 26-Aug | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
GBPUSD TECHS: Strong Bounce
- RES 4: 1.3114 - 2.00 proj of the APr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.2955 76.4% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2899 61.8% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.2860 @ 06:15 BST Aug 14
- SUP 1:1.2762/2665 Low Aug 14 / 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.2510 Low May 14
GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. The climb undermines the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA - at 1.2804. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 1.2955, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, where a break is required to once again resume recent bearish activity.
