SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Talks Enter "Critical Point"
Oct-08 14:53
Amichai Stein at the Jerusalem Post reports on X regarding ongoing Gaza peace talks in Egypt, “Israeli and foreign sources are telling me in the last hour: "Optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, entering the critical hours."”
- Roi Kais at KAN reports similarly, “A senior American official told the "Sky News" channel in Arabic that "the professional discussions in Sharm el-Sheikh have reached a critical point." He added that they are "optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future."”
- Jennifer Griffin at Fox News reports, “Fox News can confirm Secretary of State Rubio will be in Paris tomorrow (Thursday) for high-level ministerial meetings on Gaza plans. The talks will include representatives from France, the UK, Germany, Gulf region countries, Turkey and others.” The report confirms earlier MNI bullet, see: MIDEAST: Rubio To Attend Paris Gaza Meet; Expanded Hamas-Israel Talks Continue
- JPost reported earlier that Hamas "requested written guarantees of Israel’s commitment to a ceasefire" as US President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh to join negotiations.
- A spokesperson for Hamas' political wing said the group had “presented the necessary positivity and responsibility” to advance efforts toward an agreement. Mediators, he said, were “making great efforts to remove any obstacles,” and that “a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” per JPost.
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Historical bullets
FRANCE: Lecornu Gains Ground As Frontrunner To Replace Bayrou
Sep-08 14:43
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou told the French National Assembly that lawmakers can vote ‘according to their conscience’ today in a no-confidence vote that is expected to result in Bayrou's ouster.
- Bayrou reiterated his debt warnings: "If we want to save the ship, the ship on which we and our children find ourselves, we must act without delay. If we do not address the debt, we will no longer be able to borrow at all."
- Boris Vallaud, the president of the socialist bloc, said, “By voting against confidence today, the socialists are taking responsibility for asserting that they are ready, with the left and the ecologists, to govern."
- Next steps: Betting markets lean slightly towards snap legislative elections, despite Macron ruling the option out and the risk of further gains for the far-right National Rally. Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu is favoured to replace Bayrou if elections are not called.
- Politico notes: "Lecornu has established his credentials as a loyal Macron ally, honing a political style that chimes well that of the president — in particular his engagement with local-level politics."
- If Macron looks left for a PM (after three centrists allies) then Socialist leader Olivier Faure or Former Socialist Party prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve have been floated as potential candidates.
- DW notes, “With no rules governing who Macron must choose, or how quickly, Bayrou is likely to remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity.”
- For a timeline of today's vote, see: FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest
Figure 1: Next French Prime Minister
Source: Polymarket
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y Sale
Sep-08 14:40
- -5,000 FVZ5 109-31.75, post time bid at 1032:32ET, DV01 $224,000.
- The 5Y contract trades 109-30.75 last (+1)
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: Oct'25 FF Sale
Sep-08 14:26
- -12,000 FFV5 95.96, post time bid at 1019:19ET.
- The Oct'25 contract trades 95.955 last (-.005)
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