SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Talks Enter "Critical Point"

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou told the French National Assembly that lawmakers can vote ‘according to their conscience’ today in a no-confidence vote that is expected to result in Bayrou's ouster.

• Bayrou reiterated his debt warnings: "If we want to save the ship, the ship on which we and our children find ourselves, we must act without delay. If we do not address the debt, we will no longer be able to borrow at all."
• Boris Vallaud, the president of the socialist bloc, said, “By voting against confidence today, the socialists are taking responsibility for asserting that they are ready, with the left and the ecologists, to govern."
• Next steps: Betting markets lean slightly towards snap legislative elections, despite Macron ruling the option out and the risk of further gains for the far-right National Rally. Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu is favoured to replace Bayrou if elections are not called.
• Politico notes: "Lecornu has established his credentials as a loyal Macron ally, honing a political style that chimes well that of the president — in particular his engagement with local-level politics."
• If Macron looks left for a PM (after three centrists allies) then Socialist leader Olivier Faure or Former Socialist Party prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve have been floated as potential candidates.
• DW notes, “With no rules governing who Macron must choose, or how quickly, Bayrou is likely to remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity.”
• For a timeline of today's vote, see: FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest

Figure 1: Next French Prime Minister

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