GASOLINE: Gasoline Support from Dangote Leak but Uptrend Uncertain: Sparta

Jan-30 12:25

A small leak at a key gasoline-production unit at Nigeria’s 650kb/d Dangote refinery early this week provided some bullish sentiment in Europe. The outage boosted EBOB spreads and cracks but uncertainty surrounds an uptrend in the medium term, according to Sparta Commodities.

  • European pricing tightened as gasoline blending components prices for reformate, mixed xylene, and toluene hit new year-to-date highs.
  • Weak refining margins in the East suggest the market could become tighter in Feb as February east/west values rebounded after a $2/bbl drop the week before.
  • The trans Atlantic arb fell by about 5c/gal since mid-January to a low at almost 2 c/gal.
  • The European gasoline crack spread is today at the highest since August and the US crack the highest since November, Bloomberg data shows.
    • RBOB FEB 25 down 0.4% at 2.03$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.3$/bbl at 9.68$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 13.78$/bbl

Historical bullets

USD: Finding a broader bid

Dec-31 12:15
  • A broader bid is going through the Dollar, printing an intraday high against the Pound, AUD, CAD, CHF, ZAR, and NZD.
  • Market participants will be looking at the AUDUSD and the Psychological 0.6200 level, printed a 0.6199 low on the 19th December, this was also its lowest level since October 2022.
  • A clear break through that area, will open to 0.6170, the 2022 low and lowest level since April 2020.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put ladder buyer

Dec-31 12:03

ERZ5 98.00/97.75/97.50p ladder, bought for flat in 2.25k total.

GILTS: Extending gains ahead of the close

Dec-31 11:50
  • Overall it is a fairly decent move in Gilt, the contract continues to gain, the lower volume has been helping, but there's been a pick up in the past few minutes with just under 30 minutes left for the trading session.
  • Around 2k cumulative lots have been bought in the past few minutes, multiple clips.