NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Rises
TTF front month has risen to the top end of its weekly range of €26.5/MWh to €27.7/MWh, amid cooler temperatures towards the end of December and into January, though temperatures are still seen above-normal for the majority of December.
- TTF JAN 26 up 3.1% at 27.63€/MWh
- Deutsche ReGas is evaluating multiple options for reinstating a second FSRU at the Mukran terminal, Kpler said.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal throughout most of the two-week forecast although could drift closer to normal late in the period. Wind generation is anticipated to drop over Dec 15-16 before rebounding mid next week.
- NW European LNG sendout is estimated at 242.4mcm/d yesterday compared to an average of 236.7mcm/d so far this month and 238mcm/d in H1 Dec 2024, Bloomberg shows.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain strong at 342.9mcm/d compared to an average of 335.3mcm/d so far this month. Gassco shows total unavailable capacity of 8.6mcm/d into this weekend then falling to 6mcm/d until the end of the month.
- European gas storage was down to 71.29% full on Dec. 10, according to GIE data, amid small net withdrawals this week. The previous five-year seasonal average is 80.9% full.
- NNPC said an explosion at its Escravos-Lagos gas pipeline on Dec. 10 disrupted operations and prompted an emergency response, Reuters reports.
- LNG Loadings from the US continue their upward trajectory with US export terminal feedgas holding near record highs. Feedgas is currently around 18.6 Bcf/d after reaching a new record highs of 19.13 bcf/d on Dec. 5.
- Japan’s Shizuoka Gas has signed a term contract to buy LNG for seven years starting April 2027 at a high 12% slope to Brent crude oil, Platts reports.
- Japan Gas Association Chairman Takashi Uchida said the industry is asking the Japanese government to ensure Russian LNG can continue to be procured, Bloomberg said.
- China gas demand is expected to increase by 5% next year and 5.1% annually on average during 2026-30 up from 2.6% this year, according to China National Petroleum Corp’s Economics & Technology Research Institute.
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FOREX: Price Action Consistent with GBP Demand, USD Sales into 4pm London
USD reversal holds in recent trade, helping form a notable intraday reversal in the likes of EURUSD, USDCNH and - in particular - GBPUSD.
- Price action is consistent with some GBP buying and USD sales into the 4pm WMR fix, and while the rally in GBPUSD does put the pair close to 50 pips off intraday lows, the rally is still well short of AM highs into 1.3155 and yesterday's 1.3184.
- Futures volumes are consistent with a pick-up in interest for GBP as the spot rate recovered off lows - and the tail-off of activity as the rate stalls into 1.3140 further supports the view that the move was flow-related.
- We noted earlier today that dips in EURGBP remain well supported around the prior breakout level at 0.8769, highlighting the dominant uptrend. The next topside target remains at 0.8875, the April 2023 high.
FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $505 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $505 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates Ticked Up Monday, Set To Stay Elevated
Secured rates ticked up on Monday Nov 10 (data was published this morning by the NY Fed which alongside rate markets was closed Tuesday due to the Veterans Day holiday).
- SOFR rose 2bp (3.95%) with TGCR up 4bp (3.93%), marking the highest both in absolute terms and relative to the Fed's administered rates (notably IORB which is 3.90%) since Nov 4 when October month-end pressures looked to have been dissipating.
- We also note that takeup of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility came in at $6.05B in this morning's operation, already the highest for a full day since Nov 3.
- Additionally, Treasury bill settlement will raise $14B in new cash today and $23B Thursday, applying some upside pressure to funding rates.
- As such it doesn't look like there will be much relief in rates today.
- Effective Fed funds were unchanged at 3.87% Monday.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.95%, 0.02%, $3135B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.93%, 0.04%, $1234B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 3.93%, 0.04%, $1214B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.87%, no change, volume: $77B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.87%, no change, volume: $161B
