NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Rises
Mar-07 16:22
TTF is up on the day after Trump threatened ‘large scale’ sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Prices eased somewhat as reports surfaced that Russia was ready for a temporary truce in Ukraine. TTF is set for a net weekly decline, with temperatures forecasting near normal weather through mid-March, helping to ease risks to summer storage restocking.
- TTF APR 25 up 4.5% at 39.95€/MWh
- Truth social post from Trump today threatened sanctions/tariffs on Russia due to its current actions against Ukraine on the battlefield.
- Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine, provided there is progress towards a final peace agreement, Bloomberg reports.
- DTEK said on Friday that it has halted gas production at its facilities in Ukraine's central Poltava region after they suffered significant damage from a Russian attack overnight.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to dip into next week but hold near normal or just slightly below into the second week of the outlook.
- European gas stores were at 37.17% full on Mar. 5, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 48.4% as net withdrawals dip slightly below normal.
- European LNG sendout was 436mcm/d on Mar. 5 and just above the average from the previous week and compared to 373mcm/d in the first week of March 2024.
- EU leaders have called on the European Commission, Slovakia and Ukraine to work more actively to find a solution to the gas transit problem, the European Council said in a statement on Thursday.
- Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic said he discussed renewing a gas deal with Russian President Putin, in a phone call on Friday.
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BOE: Sellside analyst views for the rest of the year
Feb-05 16:01
- All the sellside previews that we read look for a 25bp cut this week.
- After February, the majority of analysts (18/21) look for the next cut to be in May. Deutsche Bank expect a longer pause to August while both Morgan Stanley and TD Securities both look for a March cut (while noting heightened risks of a delay).
- In terms of 2025 outlook, over 60% of analysts (13/21) expect 100bp of cuts across the year to 3.75%. Only NatWest Markets (4.00%) looks for fewer cuts (despite this being the closest forecast to market pricing). Most remaining analysts (6/21) are equally split between 3.50% and 3.25% (i.e. considerably larger number of cuts than markets price).
- In terms of terminal rate, the majority of analysts 17/21 (81%) have their base case in a 3.00-3.75% range, almost evenly split. Other than NatWest Markets (4.00%) other outliers are to the downside. The mean terminal rate is 3.27%.
