NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Falls

Softer airfares within Greece October HICP push back against findings from other larger European countries (Germany, Spain, Belgium) that airfares were a material driver behind the upside surprise in Eurozone services inflation (3.35% Y/Y vs 3.2% September). We are reluctant to put too much weight on it, however. 

• Greece "passenger transport by air" Y/Y HICP (6.3% Oct vs 11.5% Sep) had moved in the same direction as the Eurozone equivalent in 7 out of 9 months this year prior to the October data.
• Categories generally associated with persistent services items, such as communication, health or education, meanwhile saw mixed developments in Greece in October.
• Given Greece's 2.9% basket weighting in the Eurozone as well as its relevance as a vacation destination, potentially introducing idiosyncrasies, we would not overinterpret the data. It remains likely that at least some of the Eurozone services upside surprise was driven by volatile travel-related categories, downplaying its impact but with final details still to come.
• Remember that ECB President Lagarde in her October meeting press conference again hinted that the persistence of services inflation drivers are important.
• The final October HICP release is likely the last round of inflation data flowing into the ECB's December projections. Our full review of the October flash HICP round and some commentary on current ECB rhetoric can be found here.
• Netherlands final HICP for October is scheduled for publication tomorrow ahead of Wednesday's release from Germany.

• +25,000 TYF6 111.5 puts, 22

President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "All money left over from the $2000 payments made to low and middle income USA Citizens, from the massive Tariff Income pouring into our Country from foreign countries, which will be substantial, will be used to SUBSTANTIALLY PAY DOWN NATIONAL DEBT. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"