NATGAS: Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Down 7% on Week

TTF front-month prices are on track for a near 7% net weekly decline as above seasonal temps will remain until the end of February and strong US LNG exports. This is offsetting bullish pressure from below-normal gas storage levels, high gas withdrawals and gas exports. 

• TTF MAR 25 down 0.6% at 47.2€/MWh
• Temperatures in Western Europe are forecast above normal over the coming weekend but are expected to drift lower next week back to near normal by the end of the month.
• High withdrawal rates since Feb. 10 have taken gas in store down to 41.93% full on Feb. 19, GIE shows.
• Ukraine plans to import up to 800mcm of gas from Europe in February and March as production sometimes falls 40% after Russian missile strikes, according to a Reuters source.
• The number of US LNG export cargoes edged lower but remained high at 29 in the week to Feb. 19 compared to 30 the week prior, EIA said. BNEF shows US LNG export terminal feedgas reaching a record high of 16.00bcf/d today.
• Global trade flows are already shifting following China’s new 15% tariff on US LNG, according to Kpler. China resales of US LNG to Europe could quadruple to over 4 mt in 2025 from 0.93mt in 2024.
• South Korea plans to reduce LNG's share in its power mix from 28% to 10.6% by 2038, while increasing nuclear and renewable energy sources, Platts said.
• Ecopetrol SA plans to develop two new gas import facilities starting next year to make up for a domestic shortfall in Colombia, said CEO Ricardo Roa cited by Bloomberg.