LNG: Gas Prices Monitoring Winter Outlook Closely

European gas continued to trade in its recent range with prices rising 0.8% to EUR 31.76 on Wednesday to be up 1.1% this month. It fell to EUR 31.47 before increasing to EUR 31.90. The narrow range has been driven by steady inflows of gas into storage even when there is increased heating demand leaving storage levels stable around 83% full. This is around 12pp lower than the same time last year though and so the region remains vulnerable to disruptions.

• Yesterday’s small rise in prices was driven by forecasts for colder weather in northwest Europe.
• With around 60% of Ukraine’s gas capacity destroyed by Russia, the risk is that it increases gas imports, especially if winter is a cold one, competing with the rest of Europe for supplies during the season.
• The November Henry Hub contract fell 0.3% to $3.336 to be up 1% in October ahead of its 29 October expiry. Whereas December saw a sharper decline falling 1.7% to $3.802 to be down 2% this month.
• The weakness in US gas yesterday was driven by expectations that Thursday’s EIA inventory data will show a build of 74 bcf, above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg consensus. Forecasts for warmer weather for most of the country after the weekend and into the second week of November also pressured gas prices.
• See MNI US Natural Gas Winter ‘25/’26 Preview.