US TSYS: Gains Led By The Belly, Waller Headlines Today’s Docket
Apr-14 11:05By: Chris Harrison
US Treasuries+ 1
- Treasuries are firmer across the board, led by the belly, with prospects that recent reciprocal tariff exemptions for electronic items could be short-lived and with Trump still considering semi-conductor tariffs.
- Treasuries underperform most EGBs and Gilts.
- Cash yields are 1.5-7bp lower from Friday’s close, with 5s leading declines and 30s lagging.
- It sees some renewed steepening for 5s30s (currently 76.7bps, +5.0bp) after last week’s wide ranges of 65-95bps with the 65bp seen after tariff pause announcements.
- TYM5 at 110-07 (+ 15+) is within a few ticks of session highs, on more typical overnight volumes of 340k after the huge sessions in recent weeks.
- It has remained within Friday’s range throughout. It maintains a bearish tone, with support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low) after which lies 108-26+ (Fibo retracement of Jan 13- Apr 7 bull cycle), whilst resistance is seen at 111-01+ (20-day EMA).
- Another inflation expectations survey is the sole pick of today’s data before Fed Governor Waller speaks at 1300ET. The latter would likely be more of note after a raft of patient Fedspeak.
- Earnings also increasingly come into focus this week (starting with Goldman Sachs today but picking up from Tuesday).
- Data: NY Fed consumer inflation expectations Mar (1100ET)
- Fedspeak: Waller (1300ET, text + Q&A), Harker (1800ET, text + Q&A), Bostic fireside chat on policy (1940ET) – see STIR bullet for Waller. Harker (retiring in June) and Bostic (non-voter) speaking far after the close.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
