GOLD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2653.2 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
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EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22
- RES 2: 161.89 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 159.58/160.57 High Dec 6 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 158.44 @ 07:19 GMT Dec 9
- SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 160.57, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: US CPI and the ECB are at the forefront this Week
- A lighter overnight session for Bund going into the Cash open, was mostly quoted 2 ticks wide, and like the US Tnotes (TYH5), both contracts are underpinned and trade near Friday's highs.
- That level in Bund sits at 136.52, and will be seen as the initial resistance, followed by 136.94.
- The 29th November low of 135.93 held on Friday, this would be the first support area.
- Price action at the start of the Week might be somewhat limited with the US CPI (Wednesday) and the ECB (Thursday) the main focus this Week.
- For Today, there's only US Final Wholesales Inventories and NY 1yr Inflation expectations.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Ramsden.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Overbought However The Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 123.26 High Dec 6
- PRICE: 122.90 @ Close Dec 5
- SUP 1: 121.75 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 121.28 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
BTP futures traded higher last week, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. The clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.28, the 20-day EMA.
