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FOREX: Closely Monitoring 50-Day EMA Support for EURUSD
May-13 09:52
- The Euro has been unable to garner much support on Tuesday, spending the majority of the session consolidating just above the 1.11 mark, up 0.2% on the session. The single currency relatively underperforms the likes of AUD, NZD and CHF in G10. The de-escalation in global trade tensions remain the primary driver behind the repositioning in EURUSD, however, stalled negotiations between the EU/US are likely providing an additional EUR headwind.
- From a trend perspective, recent EURUSD weakness appears corrective as key signals remain bullish. However, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced 1.1082, the 50-day EMA. A clean break of the average would strengthen a bear threat and signal scope for a move towards 1.1026, the 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle.
- BBVA have noted that even if there is additional USD strength in the short term, they view these levels as good opportunities for long positions in EUR to hedge against the medium- to long-term rise that they expect for the pair.
- In similar vein, Nordea point out that fiscal stimulus and targeted investment policies will support economic growth next year. With global portfolios still heavily concentrated in US assets, even a modest rotation toward Europe could provide meaningful support to the euro.
- Nordea expect a broader diversification of assets and currencies to unfold over several years. They believe EURUSD will move up toward the 1.20 level by the end of 2026, but would not be surprised if it could play out even faster.
- ING think EURUSD has completed a first leg in a sequence of what could be a multi-year bull trend. They imagine this current corrective dip will find good buyers in the 1.1030/50 area, with outside risk of a move down to 1.0850. This week's decline makes ING feel more comfortable about their year-end target of 1.13, which otherwise had looked too conservative.
BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: TC Results
May-13 09:51
| Maturity | Aug 14, 2025 | May 14, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.39bln | E1.611bln |
| Target | E2.6-3.0bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.178bln | E772mln |
| Avg yield | 2.002% | 1.982% |
| Previous | 1.974% | 1.911% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.81x | 1.93x |
| Previous | 1.68x | 2.99x |
| Previous date | May 06, 2025 | May 06, 2025 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Remains In Play
May-13 09:51
- In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in the S&P E-Minis contract remains intact and Monday’s strong gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has pierced an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 5896.25, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 19 - Apr 7 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5637.98, the 50-day EMA.
- Strong gains in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract on Monday reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5142.89, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.
