BRENT TECHS: (G6) Trend Theme Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $63.28 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Trend conditions in Brent futures are unchanged. The move down since Oct 24, continues to highlight a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
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GERMAN DATA: Factory Orders Recover A Little In September
- German factory orders were a little stronger than expected in September, at 1.1% M/M amid an August upward revision to -0.4% (-0.8% unrevised). By itself, September represents some recovery in the series but not a material one considering index levels continue to print not far off cycle lows.
- "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 1.9% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 3.0% lower in the 3rd quarter of 2025 than in the 2nd quarter; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were down 1.5%", Destatis comments.
- "Month-on-month increases seen in the automotive industry (+3.2%) and the manufacture of electrical equipment (+9.5%). The growth in new orders for the manufacture of other transport equipment (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; +7.5%) also had a positive effect. By contrast, the decline in new orders for the manufacture of fabricated metal products (-19.0%) dragged" on drivers.
- Real turnover in manufacturing (released simultaneously with factory orders) would imply downside for tomorrow's IP vs the 3.0% M/M rebound expected (which would follow a very weak -4.3% in August partially on the back of some temporary summer factory closures). The relationship between the two prints has sometimes been a bix mixed in recent months, however.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.50 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 176.10 Low Nov 4
- SUP 2: 175.06 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 173.46 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
The trend in EURJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The cross traded to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This opens 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.06. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is 178.82, Oct 30 high.
JPY: Mimura Headlines Don't Suggest Intervention An Imminent Risk
Comments crossing from Japan's top currency official Mimura in recent minutes. Seems to have helped USDJPY inch away from session highs.
However, while the comments suggest officials are concerned/are monitoring FX movements, they do not indicate intervention is an imminent risk.
- "*JAPAN'S MIMURA: RECENT YEN MOVES DEVIATE FROM FUNDAMENTALS" bbg
- "*MIMURA: YEN LONG POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AFTER SUMMER"
- "*MIMURA: SPECULATION, GEOPOLITICS, TRADE ALL AFFECTING MARKET"
- "*MIMURA: FX EXCESSIVE VOLATILITY, NOT LEVELS, MAIN CONCERN"
Prior examples of "intervention risk" type comments to watch out for: "We can't tolerate speculative moves."...."We will take appropriate action if needed." ...."We're ready to take action at any time."
