BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 178.13 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 10 
• SUP 1: 175.29 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.77 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for an extension towards 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.29. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

That upside surprise of 0.4ppt to consensus for CPI-ATE leaves us 0.2ppt above the Norges Bank's latest forecast.

• Initial reaction has seen EURNOK move from around 11.723 pre-data to hit a low of 11.707.
• We had noted following last week's Norges Bank meeting that a December cut seemed very unlikely at this stage, and the prospects of that are likely to fall back even further.
• It appears as though the upside pressure is concentrated across "furnishings, household equipment and route maintenance", "clothing and footwear" and "recreation and culture" at first glance.

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.02 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.