BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $62.10 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A bear threat in Brent futures remains present - the move down since Oct 24 highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
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EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 178.13 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 10
- SUP 1: 175.29 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 173.77 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for an extension towards 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.29. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
NORWAY: CPI-ATE 4 tenths above consensus, 2 tenths above Norges Bank's forecast
That upside surprise of 0.4ppt to consensus for CPI-ATE leaves us 0.2ppt above the Norges Bank's latest forecast.
- Initial reaction has seen EURNOK move from around 11.723 pre-data to hit a low of 11.707.
- We had noted following last week's Norges Bank meeting that a December cut seemed very unlikely at this stage, and the prospects of that are likely to fall back even further.
- It appears as though the upside pressure is concentrated across "furnishings, household equipment and route maintenance", "clothing and footwear" and "recreation and culture" at first glance.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Unwinding An Overbought Trend Condition
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.02 @ Close Nov 7
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
