BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Threat
- RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $61.82 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 11
- SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A bear threat in Brent futures remains present and this is highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode condition. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
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BRENT TECHS: (F6) Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9
- PRICE: $63.79 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: $62.84/59.97 - Low Nov 6 / 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Recent activity in Brent futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.56. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of it would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support lies at $59.97, Oct 20 low.
UK DATA: Relatively broad slowdown in wage growth
Looking into the details of the AWE data there have been slowdowns in all the single month Y/Y growth and it looks like a relatively broad slowdown in wage growth:
- Construction to 2.87%Y/Y from 3.94%Y/Y - the lowest single month print since May 2024 and the lowest 3-month print also since May 2024 (at 3.49%Y/Y).
- Manufacturing to 4.10%Y/Y from 4.66%Y/Y - lowest single month since May 2022 and lowest 3-month print since July 2022 (at 4.39%Y/Y).
- Finance and business services to 2.29%Y/Y - the lowest single month print since July 2020 and lowest 3-month print since August 2020 (at 2.74%Y/Y).
- Wholesaling, retailing and hospitality as well as the broader services sector saw the single month prints stay stable (to 1dp) but moderation in the 3-month prints.
- As noted, it was only public sector pay that saw an acceleration.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.26 @ Close Nov 10
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.68 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend set-up in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
