BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Theme Still Intact
- RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $62.63 @ 07:07 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
The move down in Brent futures since Nov 11, continues to highlight a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.43 @ Close Oct 31
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.54 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t
The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
RATINGS: Positive For Italy & Portugal At Scope, EFSF To Negative At Moody's
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed Luxembourg at AAA; Outlook Stable
- Moody's affirmed Canada at Aaa, outlook stable
- Moody's affirmed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at Aaa, outlook changed to negative from stable
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Luxembourg at AAA, Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed Italy at BBB+; Outlook changed to Positive
- Scope Ratings affirmed Portugal at A; Outlook changed to Positive
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle
- RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 93.96 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 93.62 @ Close Oct 31
- SUP 1: 93.15 Low Oct 27
- SUP 2: 92.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 92.38 Low Oct 20
- SUP 4: 92.02 50-day EMA
The trend structure in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. A break of this level would open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch 92.75, the 20-day EMA.
