FOREX: FX Wrap - USD Trades A Little Soft
The BBDXY has had a range of 1227.96 - 1229.83 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1228. The EU is revising its proposals for a potential trade deal with the US, people familiar said. The bloc’s economy chief urged China to avoid flooding Europe with its goods as it seeks to avoid US tariffs, with data showing Beijing’s trade surplus with the EU hit a record in the first four months of this year(BBG). CNBC - “Brace for wild trading on Friday as a huge wave of options is set to expire”.
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1182 - 1.1209, Asia is currently trading 1.1205. EUR/USD has had a quiet session as the market consolidates. The market is still expected to use dips as a buying opportunity and dips back towards 1.09/1.10 should see buyers remerge.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3299 - 1.3319, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3320. Decent demand for GBP sub 1.3200 has seen it bounce back to the middle of its recent range 1.3150 - 1.3450.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1952 - 7.2063, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1938. Asia is currently dealing around 7.2000. Sellers should be found on a bounce back towards 7.24/25 again.
- Cross asset : SPX +0.01%, Gold $3215, US 10-Year 4.42%, BBDXY 1228, Crude oil $61.76
Data/Events : US Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Index, Housing Starts, Un of Mich sentiment, Italy CPI & Trade Balance, EC Trade Balance
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance
- RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 131.57 High APr 15
- PRICE: 131.48 @ 05:35 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 129.84/128.60 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28
- SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17
Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56 next, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break below this level would alter the picture.
BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Flattener Ahead Of Q1 CPI Data Tomorrow
NZGBs closed showing a bear-flattening, with benchmark yields flat to 3bps cheaper. The 2-year closed around mid-range, while the 10-year outperformed, ending at session highs, supported by strength in cash US tsys.
- In today’s Asia-Pac session, US tsys are exhibiting a twist-steepener, with yields ranging from 3bps lower at the short end to 1bp higher further out the curve.
- Today’s US calendar sees: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and NAHB Housing Market Index. Fed Chair Powell will also deliver a speech about the economic outlook.
- Swap rates closed with rates 2bps lower to 1bp higher, with a steeper curve.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly mixed across meetings. 28bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 80bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q1 CPI data. It is expected to show a pickup in inflation from Q4 but still comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% band.
- Bloomberg consensus is at 0.8% q/q & 2.4% y/y, in line with the RBNZ’s February forecast but higher than Q4’s 0.5% q/q & 2.2% y/y. Both tradeables and non-tradeables are projected to post a stronger quarterly increase than in Q4.
- The NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond tomorrow.
GOLD: New Record as Tariff Headlines Continue.
- Gold finished where the US trading session left today, clawing back some of the falls from Monday as tariff uncertainty continues.
- Opening at $3,230.75, gold rallied during the day to reach $3,274.40 – another new record.
- Gold has reasserted its position above all major moving averages with the closest the 20-day EMA of 3,109.47
- South Africa's gold production fell 7.6% y/y in February versus +1.0% in January, according to Statistics South Africa.
- Gold Fields Ltd is preparing to comply with an order from the Ghanaian government to vacate one of its mines after the government rejected a lease extension. Gold Fields Ltd
- Authorities in Mali have closed Barrick Gold’s Head Office over a tax dispute.
