FOREX: FX Wrap - USD Breaking Down
The BBDXY has had a range of 1217.80 - 1222.27 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1218. Ministry of Finance data shows the Chinese government deficit tipped CNY2.6tn in the year to April. This deficit is one of the largest on record and represented a 50% increase year on year. “The BOE may relax post-crisis rules that forced banks to separate retail and investment arms. HSBC, NatWest and Lloyds asked Chancellor Rachel Reeves last month to abolish ring-fencing, saying it made the British banking industry less competitive.”(BBG)
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1281 - 1.1340, Asia is currently trading 1.1230.The market is still expected to use dips as a buying opportunity and dips back towards 1.10 should see buyers remerge. Can it find upward momentum again ?
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3381 - 1.3435, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3430. Decent demand for GBP all through the Asian session has seen it break above 1.3400. The GBP is back to testing Pivotal Weekly Resistance in the 1.3500 area.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.2040 - 7.2198, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1937. Asia is currently dealing around 7.2050. Sellers should be found on a bounce back towards the 7.2400 area again.
- Cross asset : SPX -0.38%, Gold $3305, US 10-Year 4.50%, BBDXY 1218, Crude oil $63.14
Data/Events : MBA Mortgage applications, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin , Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to participate in a “Fed Listens” event.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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GOLD: Gold Surges as USD Struggles
- Playing catch up after a closed period Friday, gold jumped in early trading in the Asia morning to reach new all-time highs.
- Opening at US$3334.44, gold has touched a new high of $3,376.03.
- This takes gold year to date gains in excess of 28% and is causing forecasters globally to reset their year end expectations.
- Gold sits above all major moving averages, with the nearest the 20-day EMA of $3,158.88
- A strong day for China bourses yet mixed throughout the region despite the weaker USD.
ASIA STOCKS: Strong Day for China as Hang Seng Leads.
A strong day across the region for some bourses as the USD weakened on Federal Reserve uncertainty with the Hang Seng leading the way.
With all major bourses enjoying strong gains, Taiwan’s TAIEX was an outlier falling -1.65 as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares drop as much as -2.1% after the company’s Arizona subsidiary posted a loss of NT$14.3 billion last year.
South Korea’s presidential-election front-runner, vowed to lift corporate governance standards and curb malpractices such as stock manipulation in a bid to boost the allure of the nation’s $1.6 trillion stock market.
- In China the Hang Seng rose +1.6% today for one of the biggest gains in the region, with the CSI 300 not as euphoric rising just +0.15%, Shanghai Comp +.30% and Shenzhen Comp +0.99%.
- The KOSPI is having as good a start to the trading week trading flat to where it started, despite the comments from the election front runner.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Malaysia KLCI fell -0.18% today.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell -0.26%
- In Singapore the FTSE Straits Times was a standout rising +1.00%
- India’s NIFTY 50 has had a strong start to Monday rising +0.75%
OIL: Crude Down As US Worries Impact Markets
After rising close to 5% last week, oil prices are lower today driven by a pullback in risk following pressure from US President Trump on the Fed to cut rates and worries regarding the impact of increased protectionism on energy demand. April trade and confidence data will be monitored closely for signs of any early impact. Crude remains well above initial support levels though. The USD is significantly weaker (BBDXY USD index -0.7%) as markets fear political interference in US monetary policy.
- WTI is down 1.5% to $63.69/bbl during holiday-impacted APAC trading today. It reached a low of $63.38 earlier and is now around 10% softer this month with the bearish theme remaining intact. Last week’s rally helped the oversold condition to unwind. Initial support is at $55.12 with resistance $64.49.
- Brent has sold off 1.6% to $66.87/bbl following a low of $66.61. Last week’s 4.8% rise is considered corrective with the trend direction down. Initial support is at $62.00 with resistance at $67.95.
- Talks appear to be progressing between the US and Iran on its nuclear programme, which if successful could result in increased oil exports. Iranian comments continue to support its right to enrich uranium though and the lack of an agreement may result in tighter sanctions, which if enforced would support oil prices.
- The US has suggested that a lasting ceasefire in the Ukraine would allow an easing of sanctions on Russia, which would also add to global oil supplies, but it seems that the Easter truce has not been respected.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and the US March leading index is released. Europe remains closed.
