FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Sep-26 08:24
Of note:
EURUSD 3.6bn at 1.1685/1.1710.
GBPUSD 1.37bn at 1.3320/1.3370.
AUDUSD 1.1bn at 0.6595/0.6600 (tue).
EURUSD 1.2bn at 1.1695/1.1700 (tue).
EURUSD 1.32bn at 1.1700 (wed).
AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6600 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.57bn at 0.6600 (thu).
- EURUSD: 1.1600 (602mln), 1.1645 (325mln), 1.1650 (675mln), 1.1685 (1.27bn), 1.1700 (1.67bn), 1.1710 (660mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3320 (520mln), 1.3360 (490mln), 1.3370 (361mln).
- USDJPY: 150.00 (495mln), 152.00 (1.66bn).
- USDCAD: 1.3875 (954mln), 1.3900 (571mln), 1.3960 (480mln), 1.3965 (301mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6515 (349mln), 0.6520 (250mln), 0.6550 (277mln), 0.6600 (481mln).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
UK: Ofgem Price Cap Rise Larger Than Expected
Aug-27 08:11
This morning saw Ofgem confirm that “between 1 October and 31 December 2025, the energy price cap is set at £1,755 per year for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit. This is an increase of 2% compared to the cap set between 1 July to 30 September 2025 (£1,720)”.
- The new price cap is above the £1,737.07 projection (~+1%) provided by Cornwall Insight, which is closely watched when it comes to gauging expectations.
GILTS: Futures Rebound From Fresh Cycle Lows
Aug-27 07:56
Gilt futures (Z5) registered a fresh cycle low at the open, basing at 90.22 before a recovery to 90.55 as wider core global FI firms.
- Bears remain in technical control. Fresh extension lower would target the key support at the May 22 low (90.11) on a continuation chart. Bulls need to retake 91.24 to start turning the tide in their favour.
- Yields ~2bp lower across the curve.
- Fiscal fragility remains the key topic from a domestic perspective, while the recent hawkish repricing further forwards on the curve holds.
- 2s have probed 4.00% in recent days, but bears have failed to force a sustained break above that level. The benchmark hasn’t closed above 4.00% since June 9.
- 10s haven’t tested the April 9 high (4.800%), topping out at 4.765% yesterday.
- 30s ~7bp off their multi decade high (latter located at 5.659%).
- 2s10s last 77.2bp, unable to retest the July high of 80.4bp.
- 5s30s ~2bp below cycle highs (~149bp), registered earlier this month.
- Little of note on the UK macro calendar today, but the DMO will come to market with GBP5bln of the 4.375% Mar-28 gilt this morning.
- Note that the minutes of the latest DMO consultation with market participants pointed to an ongoing preference for a reduction in WAM. Details of syndication preferences can be found in recent bullets. We will provide deeper thoughts on the update tomorrow.
BONDS: Spiking higher in the Past few minutes
Aug-27 07:54
- A peculiar bid in Govies in the last few minutes, and speaking to many desks very little was seen as a new news, or headline.
- There was some notable pick up in flows, Bund was bought in 6k, Bobl 5k, that's despite the German supply coming up this Morning.
- Schatz was bought in 5k, BTP 1k and ERU5 in 5k.
- Volumes are on the low side overall and may have helped exacerbate some of the moves.
- Bund is testing the initial resistance at 129.62.
