FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note: EURUSD 2.1bn at 1.1685/1.1700. USDJPY 1.25bn at 146.50. USDCAD 1.3bn at 1.3700/1.3715. ...
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US TSY OPTIONS: TYN5 112.00 Calls Still Trading
TYN5 112.00 calls continue to trade, ~2.6K given at 0-02 this time, over 17.5K lots have traded at that level today.
ECB: Small Upward Revision To Latest ECB Wage Tracker; Broader Trend Intact
There were slight upward revisions to the ECB’s forward looking wage tracker compared to the April vintage, but the broader theme of softening compensation pressures remains intact.
- The tracker excluding one-off payments is seen at 3.082% in Q4 2024 (vs 3.024% in the April iteration). The ECB projects compensation per employee growth at 2.8% by the last quarter of this year, down from 3.8% in Q1.
- There were also upward revisions to the share of employees covered by the wage tracker (45% in Q4 2025 vs 43% in April).
- From the ECB: “The downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker for the remainder of 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024 but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024.”
- Little impact in ECB implied rates following the release, as expected.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Some attention on the EUR and Yen
Bringing your attention to Monday and the Yen Expiry size.
Of note:
EURUSD 2.31bn at 1.1400 (could act as magnet, although the US CPI will determine the move in the spot before expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET).
USDJPY 1.11bn at 145.00.
EURUSD 1.11bn at 1.1400 (thu).
EURUSD 1.37bn at 1.1400 (fri).
EURUSD 1.25bn at 1.1400 (mon).
USDJPY 4.57bn at 145.00 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.1400 (2.31bn), 1.1500 (836mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3450 (758mln).
- USDJPY: 145.00 (1.11bn).
- AUDUSD: 0.6495 (400mln), 0.6500 (346mln).
- AUDNZD: 1.0800 (300mln).
