FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY

ERH6 98.0625/97.9375/97.8125p fly 1x2.5x1.5p fly, bought for flat in 4.8k.

Although the Riksbank Executive Board were non-committal with respect to the timing of any future rate cuts, the lean of the May meeting minutes was dovish, perhaps more so than the policy statement portrayed.

• Although some members highlighted that the overall risks to inflation may be two-sided, the recent union wage bargaining round (Breman, Bunge, Thedeen) and stronger krona (Breman, Bunge, Jansson, Thedeen) were cited several times as inflation dampeners.
• Meanwhile, growth risks are clearly tilted to the downside. Breman highlighted Riksbank research concluding that uncertainty leads to “poorer development in the real economy”, while Jansson noted that “increased uncertainty can certainly lead to lower growth, but this will probably happen primarily via a reduction in aggregate demand, leading to falling, not rising, inflation. This is, of course, a development that is easier to manage in monetary policy, especially if inflation is already elevated at the outset”.
• Alongside tracking tariff developments and hard data, several Board members emphasised the importance of monitoring company price plans in the Economic Tendency Indicator, and the next Riksbank Business Survey. 

• The German Bund has edged back towards the intraday high, after finding support at the 129.28 level (129.29 low), but the range is still a very contained 22 ticks in Low Volumes.
• Yesterday's high in Bund is at 129.71, but better resistance is seen at 129.86.
• Looking across assets, the Dollar is seeing some small selling, at session low against the EUR, GBP, TWD, CAD, NOK, SEK, MXN, ZAR and PLN, but aside from the USDJPY wider range, most G10s trade within contained ranges.