FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 2.84bn at 1.1375/1.1395.
USDJPY 1.76bn at 142.00.
USDJPY 1.5bn at 143.00/143.10 (thu).
USDCAD 2.45bn at 1.3865/1.3870 (mon).
USDCNY 1.51bn at 7.300 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.1340 (300mln), 1.1375 (377mln), 1.1380 (600mln), 1.1385 (403mln), 1.1390 (1.12bn), 1.1395 (343mln), 1.1425 (558mln).
- USDJPY: 142.00 (1.76bn), 143.00 (264mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3825 (293mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5950 (521mln).
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OPTIONS: EUR Sees Sizeable Expiry Interest Against Both GBP, USD
Spot EUR/USD remains pinned between two relatively decently sized expiries rolling off at the cut today: $1.0800(E957mln), $1.0875-90(E672mln), which could contain range barring any major German inflation surprise or renewed tariff risk from Trump today.
USD/JPY, meanwhile, sees $868mln rolling off at Y150.00 and EUR/GBP with E1.1bln layered between 0.8360-70.
- AUD/USD: $0.6300(A$542mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2800($915mln)
GERMAN DATA: State CPI data broadly in line with expectation
- The first few German state CPIs look broadly in line with expectations. We have received states which make up around 85% of the index and it is currently tracking at 0.32%M/M.
- In the Bloomberg survey German national CPI (not HICP) estimates were split between 0.2-0.4%M/M: the median estimate is 0.3%M/M but the modal estimate is 0.4%M/M.
- So we are broadly in line with expectations.
- The Y/Y is also tracking at 2.20% (consensus is 2.2%).
- Note that surprises in state CPI do not always fully correlate with surprises in HICP.
MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: Core FI Month-End Projections Deemed Average To Negligible
A reminder that BBG’s month-end index extension estimates are deemed average to negligible this month, but there will still be some focus on related flow in both the European & U.S. afternoons.
- US Tsys: +0.07yr
- EGBs: +0.06yr
- Gilts: -0.03yr
