EUR: FX Exchange Traded Option, playing the NFP

• French OAT is getting hit here, testing session low, some 3k sold in the past few minutes, all cumulative Volumes.
• Yesterday's low is at 121.54, but initial level is still eyed at 3.550% = 121.39, followed by 3.631% = 120.61 (highest Yield print since Nov 2011).
• Other Bonds (Germany and US Treasuries) are getting dragged lower by France.

Note that Bunds haven’t shown much in the way of sensitivity to the technically uncovered 7-Year auction that came this morning.

• This added to the recent trend of softening demand at German primary offerings, with last week’s 30-Year offering also being technically uncovered (albeit with that instance coming within a dual tranche auction).
• Desks pointed to the potential for softer demand ahead of today’s auction, with the 7-Year zone falling between the demand sweet spots of 5s & 10s, making for fewer natural buyers in this area of the curve (as well as a more cumbersome/less exact hedging process).
• This, combined with focus on the resumption of more meaningful supply after the summer break and the incoming increase in German issuance, likely factored into soft demand at today’s offering.

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• President Donald Trump will have lunch with Vice President JD Vance at 12:30 ET 17:30 BST.
• At 15:15 ET 20:15 BST, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, the first-known Cabinet-level confab since Israel launched a new military operation in Gaza.
• Average gasoline prices are expected to hit a Labor Day weekend low not seen since 2020, a boost for Trump, who has made reducing energy costs a central plank of his presidency.
• The Federal Reserve confirmed that Governor Lisa Cook will challenge the termination notice issued by Trump, noting that the Fed will “abide by any court decision.”
• The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing next week on the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Fed seat. Democrats will use the hearing to apply pressure on moderate Republicans to defend Fed independence.
• The ‘de minimis’ exemption is set to expire on Friday.
• Trump’s punitive addtional 25% tariff rate on Indian imports went into effect today, a strategy that could accelerate cooperation between BRICS members.
• Democrats flipped an open Iowa state Senate seat, breaking the GOP’s supermajority in Iowa's upper house.
• Trump warned of an “economic war” if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy do not reach a peace agreement. Russian forces made a symbolic breakthrough, capturing two villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Poll of the Day: Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August. 

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