US TSYS: Futures Re-Open Little Changed, Risk-On On Trade Deal HLs

Oil prices finished moderately higher on Tuesday but off intraday highs following news of a partial Ukraine-Russia truce agreement. Russia has put conditions on the deal which have made it unclear whether it has actually been settled. The easing of sanctions on Russian energy still seems a long way off. Uncertainty over how global developments are going to impact demand and supply has limited moves resulting in benchmarks little changed over March.   

• WTI rose 0.1% to $69.20 reaching a high of $69.68, breaching the 50-day EMA at $69.33, and then falling to $68.52. It is now down 0.2% this month. It has started today higher at $69.38 following data showing a US stock drawdown. The bearish trend remains intact though with the bear trigger at $64.85. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is needed to strengthen a bullish theme.
• Brent is up 0.25% to $73.18/bbl off the low of $72.50 which followed a peak of $73.57. The benchmark is now up 0.5% in March. Gains are still considered corrective though but if it maintains the break of the 50-day EMA at $72.83 then there could be scope for a stronger recovery. The bull trigger is at $76.78, 11 February high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger is at $67.33, 5 March low.
• The US has said that a truce has been agreed for the Black Sea to allow grain and fertiliser exports. There is some doubt over the agreement as Russia has said the deal depends on the lifting of sanctions on banks and companies that export agricultural products. It also includes a ban on striking energy infrastructure for 30 days.
• Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory drawdown of 4.6mn barrels last week with 600k at Cushing, according to people familiar with the API data. Products continued to decline with gasoline down 3.3mn and distillate 1.3mn. The official EIA data is out later today.

• Following the first three successive down days of the year, gold resumed its rally overnight gaining +0.30%.
• Whilst a short-term spike towards the end of the US trading day saw gold touch US$3,036.00, it had to settle for a more moderate gain closing at $3,020.08.
• The bid by South African miner Gold Fields for Australian miner Gold Road Resources has been rejected.
• All key moving averages remain upward sloping, indicating that the bullish momentum remains in place for gold.
• Currently gold sits above the 20-day EMA of $2,975.07

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