FOREX: Further GBP Downside Could Stem From Vote Split, Comms at Thurs BoE

It’s not pricing for this week’s BoE decision that’s shifting spot markets here, but policy differentials further down the curve. SFIZ6 SONIA futures, capturing year-end 2026 policy expectations, hit a new year-to-date high, providing further contrast with the hawkish shifts in EUR curves since the beginning of the month.

• What next for GBP? With tomorrow’s rate cut baked in, the vote split will be in focus. Today’s inflation print could potentially tilt a vote split to 6-3 – a dovish signal that could usher in easier pricing still for next year as the committee would look more proactive on downside inflation surprises.
• GBPUSD remains pinned toward today’s new weekly lows of 1.3312, while EURGBP is narrowing in on December highs of 0.8802 on this morning’s CPI print.
• For GBPUSD, support sits at 1.3290, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would highlight a bearish development and signal a possible reversal. To the upside, attention is on 1.3452 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. In EURGBP, 0.8802-10 could provide intraday resistance, but a close above this mark today would open gains toward November’s 0.8865.