US DATA: Further Drop In Revelio Labs Job Postings Echoes Indeed Metric [1/2]
- Within the Revelio labor data release, which prompted a dovish reaction in rates space with a 9k decline in its estimate for nonfarm payrolls growth in October, job postings fell further to a seasonally adjusted 16.25mn.
- It was a 307k monthly decline in postings to a new low for the cycle although with data only starting in 2022.
- Whilst it points to some further downside momentum in the JOLTS data that is currently only up to August under the government shutdown, it’s relatively modest and chimes with that seen in the daily Indeed postings we have intermittently written about in recent weeks.
- We focus on the direction in these data rather than the outright level, with the Revelio figure of 16.25mn far larger than the 7.2mn in August JOLTS job openings (the figure that goes into the vacancy to unemployed ratio that still carries weight in Fed labor market analysis). That said, this much higher Revelio series could at least partly suggest that the labor market is stronger than what the JOLTS data suggest.
- Revelio on some potential factors behind such a large difference (methodology link):
- “JOLTS applies a restrictive criterion, counting only jobs that are actively recruiting and intended to be filled within 30 days. By contrast, Revelio Labs includes any active posting, regardless of employer hiring horizon. This is particularly relevant for positions with longer recruitment cycles (e.g., senior roles, government jobs, or specialized technical occupations), or evergreen job openings.”
- “The Revelio Labs dataset reflects openings scraped from across the web, including company career sites, job boards, and staffing firms. This broader scope captures multi-channel labor demand that may be underrepresented in JOLTS, especially for smaller firms or rapidly emerging occupations.”
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USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.78 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 151.21 High Mar 28 & Oct 07
- PRICE: 151.17 @ 16:39 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 149.05 Low Oct 6
- SUP 2: 148.10/147.67 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 146.59 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low
- SUP 4: 145.49 Low Sept 17
A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY following Monday's strong start to the week. The move higher has resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. This has exposed the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Monday’s intraday low at 149.05 is first support.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8685 @ 16:38 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 0.8673/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
Short-term weakness in EURGBP appears corrective and the trend condition is bullish. The cross traded lower on Monday. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8673, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a bearish threat. For bulls, key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8769, the Jul 28 high.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.15B TD Synnex 2Pt Launched
$7.85B total to price Tuesday:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/07 $2.5B *Bank of England 5Y +8a
- 10/07 $1.75B *CPPIB 3Y SOFR+39
- 10/07 $1.75B #Angola $1B +5Y 9.25%, $750M 10Y 10.125%
- 10/07 $1.15B #TD Synnex $550M +3Y +75, $600M 10Y +118
- 10/07 $700M *Türkiye Garanti Bankası 10.5NC5.5 7.625%
