NATGAS: Funds Reduce TTF Net Long Positions Slightly in Week to May 17
GAS POSITIONING - Investment fund net long positioning in ICE TTF futures eased back from the most bullish since February 2022 according to the commitment of traders data for the week to May 17. The rise comes amid supply concern from LNG competition from Asia and supported by higher cooling demand next week and low wind generation in NW Europe.
- TTF front month futures have rallied from a low of €29.15/MWh last week and €22.513/MWh on February to a high of €33.94Wh earlier today with added support in recent weeks from Norwegian and US LNG export supply outages as well as geopolitical risks.
- Investment Firm net position fell by 14.44m to -104.18m
- Investment Funds net position fell by 11.66m to +91.55m
- Commercial Undertaking net position increased by 9.53m to 14.99m
Source: Bloomberg
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CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Post-Budget Housing Sales Pitch
- PM Trudeau and FM Freeland continue touring to pitch measures for new housing from last Tuesday's budget. A plan to close the 3m unit gap agencies say is needed is now in place but some municipalities resist federal funding conditions and few units will be built before election due next year.
- Conservatives draw high-profile candidates ahead of next election from other parties, a lawmaker from Quebec’s provincial CAQ and a former British Columbia Liberal finance minister.
- Sample headlines: The Liberals move from borrow and spend, to tax and spend (Globe and Mail); Dominic LeBlanc wants his close friend Justin Trudeau’s job (Globe); The federal budget is a Liberal strategy driven by panic (National Post); Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster (CTV)
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win majority government if an election were held now. Election is due in 2025 under traditional four-year mandate.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 109-31 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 109-26+ High Apr 10
- RES 2: 108-31+ 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-22+ High Apr 19
- PRICE: 107-20 @ 11:00 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 107-13+ Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 107-07+ 76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg (cont)
- SUP 3: 106-27 2.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 106-08 3.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
The trend outlook in Treasuries is unchanged and a bear cycle remains in play. Last week’s move lower reinforces the current bear theme and the move down has resumed this year’s bear trend and in the process, cleared a number of short-term support points. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on 107.07+ next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is 108-31+, the 20-day EMA.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gains In EUROSTOXX 50 Futures Appear To Be A Correction
- In the equity space, the short-term trend condition in {US} S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Friday’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 4907.57 next, 50.0% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg. Firm resistance is seen at 5164.38, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal. {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded to a fresh cycle low Friday, before recovering. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has traded through 4859.20, the 50-day EMA and a key pivot price point. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and opens 4711.00, the Feb 19 low. Initial firm resistance is 4926.90, the 20-day EMA.
