EM CEEMEA CREDIT: FROTO: Fitch affirms
Ford Otosan (FROTO; -/BB/BB+)
“*Fitch Affirms Ford Otosan at 'BB+'; Outlook Stable” – Fitch/BBG
- Fitch affirms its high double-B stance on the one-notch uplift (investment guarantee scheme from Ford Motor Co) for snr unsecured and LT fx-ccy IDR vs Standalone revised downward at mid double-B. On the latter, the agency expects net leverage to “remain above 2.0x over the next 24 months”, on uncertain market conditions in its operating markets.
- FROTO 7.125 Apr29 charts at z+392bp (source: Bloomberg data), near the local wides.
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BOBL TECHS: (M5) Pierces Support
- RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 3
- RES 2: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 1: 118.060 Intraday high
- PRICE: 117.970 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 117.820 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.662 1.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.600 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.490 2.00 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures are trading sharply lower this morning. The contract has gapped down and price action is likely to remain volatile near-term. A key short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has been pierced. This undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards the 117.600 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.040, the Feb 28 high.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Services/Composite Final PMI |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene | |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | Greene annual report | |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 1500 | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' | |
| 10-Mar | 0001 | KPMG/REC Jobs Report | |
| 11-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Mar | 0001 | RICS House Prices | |
| 12-Mar | 0730 | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Monthly Activity Data |
| 14-Mar | 0730 | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 17-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Rightmove House Prices Index |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 19-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 2024
- RES 3: 1.0804 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0728 High Nov 11 2024
- RES 1: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.0639 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.0529 High Feb 26 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.0477 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high. The climb has resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. This marks a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3 and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The focus is on 1.0677 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, an initial key short-term support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA.
