FED: Front-Loaded Fedspeak To Offer Current Voter Views On Payrolls
Nov-21 11:36
- It’s another heavy schedule for Fedspeak today, this time more front-loaded, and importantly with five of the six speakers voting at next month’s FOMC meeting (four are permanent voters) and Logan to have a voting role from January.
- Focus will be on their reaction to yesterday’s September payrolls report. Barring an ever dovish Miran, FOMC members so far haven’t appeared concerned by the rise in the u/e rate to 4.44% in September.
- Goolsbee (’25) said the latest data including the September payrolls report didn't change his mind that the labor market has cooled but has largely been stable, with recent gains near the Chicago Fed's breakeven rate.
- Hammack (’26) said the jobs report is 'a bit stale' but is in line with expectations, looked a bit mixed and highlighted challenges faced by monetary policy.
- Paulson (’26) said the higher u/e rate is still in the “neighborhood of full employment” and generally viewed the September data as encouraging.
- 0730ET - NY Fed Williams (voter) keynote speech at Central Bank of Chile conference (text + Q&A)
- 0800ET - Boston Fed’s Collins (’25) on CNBC
- 0830ET - Fed Gov. Barr (voter, most hawkish permanent voter) welcoming remarks
- 0830ET - Fed Gov. Miran (voter, outright dove) on Bloomberg TV. He said after payrolls yesterday that it’s “incumbent upon” the Fed to move rates closer to neutral.
- 0845ET - Fed Gov. Jefferson (voter) on financial stability (text + Q&A)
- 0900ET - Dallas Fed’s Logan (’26, hawk) in SNB panel (text + Q&A)
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Extends
Oct-22 11:29
- In the FI space, short-term resistance in Bund futures remains intact for now. The trend outlook is bullish following recent strong impulsive gains and sights are on the next key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.30, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and today’s gap higher strengthens the bullish condition. The contract is through its recent high of 93.17, the Oct 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a 1.500 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. A key support to watch lies at 91.65, the 20-day EMA. Initial support lies at 93.17, the Oct 17 high.
CHINA-EU: EU Preparing Responses To Rare Earth Restrictions: BBG
Oct-22 11:25
Bloomberg reporting on potential EU responses to China's rare earth restrictions:
- "The European Union is working on trade options to counter China’s planned export controls on critical raw materials should the bloc fail to reach a diplomatic solution with Beijing."
- "The European Commission is preparing a list of trade measures by the end of the month that can later be deployed against China to boost its negotiating leverage, according to people familiar with the matter. The commission is also developing a plan to protect critical supplies in the short-term and secure other sources. "
- "The issue will likely be addressed at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels this week, though the commission wants to avoid a discussion on specific measures, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. They declined to say what trade options the EU could consider, citing the sensitive nature of the matter."
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-22 11:17
- EUR/USD: Oct23 $1.1515-25(E1.1bln), $1.1555-65(E1.3bln), $1.1575(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.1bln), $1.1670-80(E1.0bln), $1.1750-70(E2.8bln); Oct24 $1.1500-20(E1.2bln), $1.1635-50(E1.1bln); Oct27 $1.1520-35(E1.2bln), $1.1670-80(E1.1bln), $1.1700-10(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct24 Y150.00($2.0bln), Y151.00-20($1.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct23 $0.6585-00(A$1.1bln); Oct24 $0.6450(A$1.6bln); Oct27 $0.6490(A$1.8bln)
