LOOK AHEAD: Friday Data Calendar: Import/Export Prices, UofMich Sentiment
May-12 10:17
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- May-12 0830 Import Price Index MoM (-0.6%, 0.3%); YoY (-4.6%, -4.8%)
- May-12 0830 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (-0.6%, -0.3%)
- May-12 0830 Export Price Index MoM (-0.3%, 0.2%); YoY (-4.8%, -5.5%)
- May-12 1000 U. of Mich. Sentiment (63.5, 63.0)
- May-12 1000 U. of Mich. Current Conditions (68.2, 67.5)
- May-12 1000 U. of Mich. Expectations (60.5, 60.8)
- May-12 1000 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (4.6%, 4.4%)
- May-12 1000 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation (3.0%, 2.9%)
- May-12 1420 SF Fed Daly commencement speech
- May-12 1945 StL Fed Bullar, Fed Gov Jefferson, moderated panel discussion on mon-pol, Stanford
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USD: New session lows
Apr-12 10:10
- New lows for the Dollar versus NOK, SGD, CHF, AUD.
- Cable recovers from the lows and EURUSD edges back towards session high.
Note that we have some large option expiry for today and tomorrow at 1.0900 in EURUSD, expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET.
- EURUSD 2.92bn at 1.0900/1.0910.
- EURUSD 6.13bn at 1.0900 (thu).
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Outlook Remains Bullish
Apr-12 10:07
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, the 2.00 projection of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gains strengthened this current condition. The contract has today pierced $81.81, the Apr 4 high. A continuation higher would open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective. First support lies at $77.69, the 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 4 rally.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bulls Remain IN The Driver's Seat
Apr-12 09:50
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a bullish tone. Resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high, has been breached. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0834, remains intact and the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.0755. A clear break of these two averages would be bearish.
- GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. The break marks an important medium-term development signalling the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 2022. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. The bull trigger is 1.2525, Apr 4 high. Support is at 1.2324, 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery in price is considered corrective and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg. A break of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal the end of the corrective phase and attention would turn to support at 130.64, the Apr 5 low.
