LOOK AHEAD: Friday Data Calendar: House Starts, Build Permit, IP/Cap-U, TIC Flow

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has dropped his bid to confirm 'anti-crypto' Democrat Caroline Crenshaw to serve another term on the Securities and Exchange Commission, leaving the position open for Republicans to fill in the next Congress. 

• Axios reports that, according to sources, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) believes “there is not a path to getting her a floor vote at the end of this year” noting that outgoing centrist Senators Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) were expected to block the nomination, as they did last week on a vote to assure two more years of Democrat control on the National Labor Relations Board.
• The move comes after weeks of lobbying from the crypto sector, seen as one of the biggest winners in Washington at November’s presidential election. Emilie Choi, president of Coinbase, wrote on X: “Caroline Crenshaw is anti-crypto. She even embarrassingly opposed Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has to change.”
• FX Street notes that Crenshaw “has aligned closely with SEC Chair Gary Gensler on regulatory matters,” but “is regarded as even more anti-crypto than Gensler, particularly due to her opposition to crypto policies...”
• Crenshaw’s exit from the panel, along with the resignation of Chair Gary Gensler, is likely to leave the Democratic Party with only one commissioner on the five-member panel. Trump has nominated financial services adviser, Paul Atkins, to lead the SEC, with analysts expecting Atkins to undo many of the climate and social regulations and proposals brought by Gensler.

• The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective and marks a pause in the uptrend. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A continuation higher would open 6194.19, the 1.236 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6105.41, the 20-day EMA.
• A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. A resumption of gains would open 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4895.65, the 50-day EMA.

OI data points to net short cover in most contracts on Tuesday, with that theme only broken by a modest round of net long setting in US futures.

• TY futures saw the largest DV01 equivalent positioning swing (~$1.6mn).