USDCAD surged Thursday and in the process confirmed a clear break of resistance at 1.3084, the Jul 5 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend, paving the way for gains towards a vol band based resistance of 1.3247 and the 1.3300 handle further out. Moving average studies remain a bull mode condition, reinforcing the current positive outlook. Key support has been defined at 1.2936, the Jul 8 low.
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Market-implied Fed Funds suggest about 15bp of hikes have been pared from the path to the (still) mid-2023 rate peak - now about 3.82%, vs just under 4% pre-FOMC. The overall market path is now very close to the median dots.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is shortly due to deliver her daily press conference.
A knee-jerk move lower in rates, but then a recovery. 2Y yields flying now, dropped about 7bp after the decision then rose by 16bp from the lows. Curve flatter, 2s10s inverts briefly.