USDJPY has traded lower today and in the process has breached support and the bear trigger at 130.58. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The pair has also traded through the 130.00 handle. This opens 129.51 next, the Jun 2 low, ahead of 128.44, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.50, the Dec 28 high.
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Bonds lead the rebound off post jobs data lows, rising steadily higher (read: narrow upward path) through the NY close. Gist: continued sale unwind/buy support operating under the premise this morning's higher than expected Nov jobs gain of +263k (+200k est) not high enough to seriously dampen expectations of a step-down to 50bp hike at Dec 14 FOMC.
The number of varied trades made up for modest overall volumes Friday. two-way flow as underlying futures steadily reversed post-NFP sell-off as 50bp hike in Dec still priced in (curves flatter as prospect of slower hikes in 2023 cooled, however).
JGB futures continue to trade below 149.75, the Nov 11 high. A resumption of weakness would expose support at 148.24, the Nov 4 low. If this level is cleared, scope would be seen for a move towards 147.38, the Oct 21 low and 147.07, the Jun 20 low (cont). For bulls, key resistance has been defined at 150.81, the Aug 5 high where a break is required to suggest a stronger medium-term reversal.