GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend High

RRP usage rises to $171.780B this afternoon from $137.951B yesterday. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties at 45.

According to a new study from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania, “Large majorities of U.S. adults support the role of the courts and Congress in serving as checks on presidential power, even though the public has less trust in all three branches of the federal government than it does in many other American institutions and professions”.

• The study notes: “A majority of Americans (60%) think the country is going in the wrong direction and a slim majority (54%) think a year from now the economy will be worse than it is today.
• “A strong majority (69%) of Americans say the president should follow a Supreme Court ruling, even if the president believes the ruling prevents him from protecting the country from a terrorist attack.”
• An Economist/YouGov survey out this morning found that Trump's net approval on his handling of the economy has dropped to -12 (last week -7; start of term +12).
• The YouGov survey also notes that his approval on handling of immigration has dropped to -5 (start of term +11), indicating that, taking with the above data on presidential overreach, Trump is now vulnerable on his core issue. Should this trend continue, Trump may face more resistance from moderate Republicans in Congress facing challenging midterm elections.

Figure 1: Response to the Following Statements

Source: Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania.

• Tsy futures bounce slightly (FVM5 to 108-06 from 108-04 at the cutoff) after the latest $70B 5Y note auction (91282CMZ1) trades through: 3.995% high yield vs. 4.005% WI; 2.41x bid-to-cover vs. 2.33x prior (lowest in 9 auctions).
• Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up at 64.04% from 75.8% prior, directs surge to 24.84% vs. 11.0% prior (5 auction low), primary dealer take-up eased to 11.12% vs. 13.2% prior.
• The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for May 28.