SOFR: Fresh Positions Set In Most Futures On Thursday
OI data points to net short setting dominating through the reds before net long setting came to the fore in the blues and greens, as the SOFR futures strip twist flattened on Thursday. Instances of cover were fairly isolated and limited in comparison.
| 28-Aug-25 | 27-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,162,438 | 1,175,158 | -12,720 | Whites | +59,452 |
SFRU5 | 1,452,635 | 1,424,817 | +27,818 | Reds | +22,762 |
SFRZ5 | 1,536,660 | 1,512,042 | +24,618 | Greens | +27,262 |
SFRH6 | 1,136,897 | 1,117,161 | +19,736 | Blues | +10,809 |
SFRM6 | 943,065 | 927,483 | +15,582 |
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SFRU6 | 922,498 | 924,621 | -2,123 |
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SFRZ6 | 953,844 | 959,710 | -5,866 |
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SFRH7 | 739,950 | 724,781 | +15,169 |
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SFRM7 | 798,171 | 790,688 | +7,483 |
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SFRU7 | 638,080 | 637,254 | +826 |
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SFRZ7 | 621,728 | 607,192 | +14,536 |
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SFRH8 | 394,025 | 389,608 | +4,417 |
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SFRM8 | 327,561 | 315,331 | +12,230 |
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SFRU8 | 221,752 | 225,798 | -4,046 |
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SFRZ8 | 241,676 | 240,213 | +1,463 |
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SFRH9 | 162,195 | 161,033 | +1,162 |
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EQUITIES: Large Block trade in Estoxx
Large Estoxx Block trade, likely helped that latest leg higher to test an intraday high, albeit off the printed high now.
- VGU5 10k at 5400.00.
SOFR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In Futures On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover during Tuesday’s rally.
- Overall positioning swings were fairly modest, with net short cover between SFRZ6 and SFRM7 probably providing the most concentrated positioning move.
| 29-Jul-25 | 28-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,260,045 | 1,257,760 | +2,285 | Whites | +5,144 |
SFRU5 | 1,319,492 | 1,316,086 | +3,406 | Reds | -7,186 |
SFRZ5 | 1,342,364 | 1,344,267 | -1,903 | Greens | -6,121 |
SFRH6 | 1,055,323 | 1,053,967 | +1,356 | Blues | +6,060 |
SFRM6 | 864,233 | 858,978 | +5,255 |
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SFRU6 | 837,498 | 834,059 | +3,439 |
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SFRZ6 | 923,717 | 929,569 | -5,852 |
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SFRH7 | 708,192 | 718,220 | -10,028 |
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SFRM7 | 696,469 | 702,617 | -6,148 |
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SFRU7 | 526,478 | 526,555 | -77 |
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SFRZ7 | 452,477 | 453,078 | -601 |
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SFRH8 | 332,005 | 331,300 | +705 |
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SFRM8 | 231,225 | 225,590 | +5,635 |
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SFRU8 | 198,932 | 201,092 | -2,160 |
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SFRZ8 | 201,281 | 199,571 | +1,710 |
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SFRH9 | 144,045 | 143,170 | +875 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bear Threat Remains Present
- In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows following the sharp sell-off on Monday. Tuesday’s extension resulted in a move through key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1560. A clear break of this EMA would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.1431, 23.6% of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle. Note that medium-term trend indicators continue to highlight an uptrend. The bull trigger is 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- A bearish set-up in GBPUSD remains intact. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach opens 1.3245, the May 19 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3467, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place. The recovery that started Jul 24 signals the end of the corrective phase between Jul 16 - 24. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. First support is at 147.07, the 20-day EMA.
