GILTS: Fresh Highs For Futures, Well-Defined Range Intact
Gilts have looked to EGBs for spillover support for much of the day. UK headline flow has been limited, outside of the soft final services PMI read.
- Futures have registered a fresh session high of 91.33 in recent trade.
- Ultimately, the well-defined range of 90.50-91.93 remains intact, with the boundaries untested.
- Yields 2-3bp lower, light steepening of the curve. 80bp continues to cap 2s10s on a closing basis.
- 10s vs. Bunds ~1bp wider at ~164bp as the rally has mostly been driven by soft German CPI data and weak European PMIs. This comes after the spread failed to close below 160bp despite several forays below the level in December.
- The GBP short end now prices ~42bp of easing through year-end vs. ~36bp the day after December’s ‘hawkish’ BoE rate cut.
- We think that progress on headline CPI and official labour market data will not be sufficient to justify the next BoE rate cut, at least not in isolation. It is likely that the Bank will also need to see progress on inflation expectations data as well as further DMP prints and a non-adverse result from the Agents' Pay Survey.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.711 | -1.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.619 | -10.8 |
Apr-26 | 3.509 | -21.7 |
Jun-26 | 3.440 | -28.6 |
Jul-26 | 3.367 | -35.9 |
Sep-26 | 3.342 | -38.4 |
Nov-26 | 3.311 | -41.5 |
Dec-26 | 3.306 | -42.0 |
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Breakout
- RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4131 High Nov 21
- RES 2: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 1: 1.3939/4016 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3865 @ 16:35 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 1.3853 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3840 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3812 Low Sep 23
- SUP 4: 1.3779 Low Sep 22
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces a bear theme. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3942, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3840 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4016, 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: FOMC Decision Dominates, Post Shutdown Data Catch-Up
- Next week’s US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a third consecutive 25bp cut almost fully priced.
- Expect it to be a contentious meeting however, with many arguing for a pause not least whilst they’re still relatively in the dark on key official data releases following the government shutdown.
- Fed Chair Powell opted for a surprisingly hawkish tone at the late October press conference, highlighting a deeply divided committee on prospects for another cut in December.
- The “fog” had appeared to win out until NY Fed’s Williams, a senior permanent voter, gave unusually explicit guidance on still seeing room “for a further adjustment in the near term”. With no pushback from FOMC members or media briefings, it appears this message has approval from the core of the FOMC which should be enough to see a rate cut this month. The likely catalyst was the further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.44% back in September, although subsequent tracking suggests stabilization and jobless claims data don’t show any signs of deterioration.
- We’ll be looking for the number of hawkish dissents (we’d be surprised if anyone joins Miran dissenting for a 50bp cut) and expect a greater number to object to a cut in the 2025 dot plot, whilst the distribution of dots for 2026 should be in greater focus.
- As for the economic projections, we expect upward revisions to GDP growth but downward revisions to near-term core PCE inflation with tariff passthrough proving less severe than previously feared.
Aside from the Fed, we also receive two months worth of JOLTS data along with other delayed releases as the shutdown data backlog is slowly caught up.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Wave Extends
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.6649 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6630 @ 16:32 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 0.6580/6533 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, having printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Recent gains have cleared a number of important short-term resistance points, strengthening a bull theme and highlighting scope for a continuation higher. Today’s rally has resulted in a breach of 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg. This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6533, 20-day EMA.
