SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3355.2 @ 08:10 BST Jun 23 
• SUP 1: $3338.8/3282.7 - Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3282.7, the 50-day EMA.

Gilt futures trade through Friday lows given the inflationary risks that follow the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

• Inflation readthrough seems to dominate any risk-off impulses at this stage.
• Note that European & U.S. equity index futures have recovered from overnight lows and crude oil benchmarks are ~$3 off overnight highs.
• Gilt futures trade as low as 92.36, nearing the 20-day EMA (92.34).
• A break there would expose the June 16 low (92.23).
• Bulls remain in technical control at this stage.
• Yields ~3bp higher across the curve, multi-week ranges in major benchmarks intact.
• A reminder that the BoE outlined its Q3 APF sales plan late on Friday.
• The GBP600mln single long operation was in the middle of the range of the three options we outlined. The short operation was a little larger than we would have expected (with a long operation of that size) and the medium operation was marginally higher too.
• Flash PMIs are due today, with BoE Governor Bailey appearing at the Insurance Chairs Dinner this evening.

• RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24 
• RES 3: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg  
• RES 2: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 169.67 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 169.26 @ 08:07 BST Jun 23 
• SUP 1: 167.46 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 165.55 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 164.95 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 164.04 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s strong start to this week’s session, reinforces a bullish theme. The cross has recently cleared 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. This signals scope for an extension towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the cross is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 165.55, the 20-day EMA.