GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3572 @ 06:39 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.3444/3329 High Apr 28 and 29 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3173/40 50-day EMA / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the pair is trading higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. The bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a Fibonacci retracement. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First support lies at 1.3329, the 20-day EMA.

The April customs trade balance showed a wider-than-expected deficit as import growth outpaced exports. There was a deficit of $3.32bn in April after a March surplus of $0.97bn. Merchandise export growth slowed to 10.2% y/y from 17.8%, while imports rose 16.1% up from 10.2% but through the volatility the 3-month average showed still robust shipments. 

• The Ministry of Commerce said that Q2 exports are expected to continue to pickup from Q1.
• Thai exports to the US rose 23.8% y/y, as shipments are frontloaded ahead of import duties. The US announced a 36% “reciprocal tariff” on imports from Thailand but it has been delayed until July 9 to allow for discussions. Shipments to China rose 3.2% y/y.
• The stronger baht is likely weighing on exports, while encouraging imports. The THB NEER average in May is up 0.9% m/m to be 8.5% higher on a year ago. 

Thailand exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.250 High May 23                                     
• PRICE: 118.770 @ 06:16 BST May 26 
• SUP 1: 118.390 Low May 22        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance.  On the downside, key support and the trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.