POWER: French, German Spot Power Indices Fall on Renewables
The German and French spot indices declined on the day with lower residual load amid higher renewables output, despite higher demand. Expectations for improved nuclear availability in France are also weighing, with hourly prices falling into negative territory during ten hours in France.
- The German spot power index settled at €71.69/MWh, compared with €87.04/MWh in the previous session. The peak load spot index stood at €33.41/MWh, compared with €57.09/MWh a day earlier.
- Day-ahead hourly prices in Germany fell into negative territory during 11-16 with prices as low as -4.32€/MWh.
- The premium over the French market widened to €54.45/MWh, compared with €50.48/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast at 9.68GW during base load on Tuesday, compared with 9.49GW on Monday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 27.18GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 23.08GW on Monday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 53.1GW on Tuesday, from 51.56GW on Monday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 27.04GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 28.53GWh/h on Monday and revised significantly up from the forecast 24h earlier at 24.98GWh/h.
- The French spot power index settled at €17.24/MWh, compared with €36.56/MWh a day earlier. The French peak-load spot index €11.01/MWh, compared with €26.42/MWh the day before.
- Day-ahead hourly prices in France fell into negative territory during hour 3-7 and 11-17, as low as -8.71€/MWh.
- French nuclear availability increased to 71% of capacity as of Monday morning, up from 66% on Friday.
- Nuclear reactor availability in France is forecast to rise to 44.28GWh/h on Tuesday, from 42.76GWh/h on Monday,
- Wind output in France is forecast at 5.1GW during base load on Tuesday, from 2.39GW on Monday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 7.95GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 6.08GW on Monday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 43.18GW on Tuesday, from 42.04GW on Monday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 33.61GWh/h on Tuesday, from 35.96GWh/h on Monday. Tuesday’s forecast was revised higher with residual load forecasted at 32.79GWh/h 24h earlier.
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USDCAD TECHS: Hits Bear Trigger, New Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4087 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3935 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3793 @ 17:00 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend set-up in USDCAD deteriorated further Friday, with prices slipping through the bear trigger to narrow the gap with next support. The fresh cycle low reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3943, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Phase
- RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6470 High May 2
- PRICE: 0.6445 @ 16:59 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 0.6344/6316 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support
AUDUSD remains inside a consolidation phase, having traded either side of the 0.6400 level for 10 consecutive sessions. The underlying trend remains bullish and the pair is trading close to recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6316, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.
US TSYS: Rates Retreat, Sentiment Improved Though Trade Risk Remains
- Treasuries look to finish near late Friday session lows after trading firmer on the open, higher than expected Nonfarm payrolls at 177k (sa, cons 138k) of which private contributed 167k (sa, cons 125k) triggered the early reversal.
- However, two-month revisions of -58k offset the 39k beat for nonfarm payrolls, with a similar story for private (a 42k surprise vs -48k two-month revision).
- Stocks are back near four week highs - pre-"Liberation Day" levels as hopes of some trade deal being made improved sentiment.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that "Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade... potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start." The Journal notes that "discussions remain fluid" and China "would like to see some softening of stance from President Trump".
- Currently, the Jun'25 10Y contract trades -20 at 111-07.5 vs 111-02 low -- initial technical support (50-dma) followed by 110-16.5/109-08 (Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger). Curves bear flattened, 2s10s -3.480 at 48.002, 5s30s -4.911 at 86.807.
