FRANCE DATA: France Manufacturing Sentiment Ticks Up To Highest Since Mar 2023
Mar-21 07:45
France Manufacturing Sentiment increased more than expected to 102.3 (vs 100 consensus, 100.6 revised prior).
- Although it remains above the long term average of 100 (since the series began in 1976) and is at the highest level since March 2023, it remains slightly below the pre covid (2014-19) average of 103.7, and more significantly below the high of January 2022 of 112.3.
- Of particular note from the sub-components 'The balance of opinion on personal production prospects over the next three months' rebounded to 9.8 from 4.5 in February, the highest since September 2023, and a month-on-month rise of 5.3 points.
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STIR: Implied SONIA Rates Little Changed To A Touch Lower, TSC Eyed
Feb-20 07:44
Core global FI markets have ticked away from yesterday’s low, leaving SONIA futures running flat to +3.5 through the blues.
- BoE-dated OIS contracts are flat to 2bp softer alongside the bid in the wider core global FI, although the strip still shows less than 3x 25bp cuts through ’24.
- Local headline flow has been muted.
- Tuesday's local docket will be headline by a TSC appearance from BoE's Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra & Greene.
- Most of that group’s monetary policy views are well-defined, while Deputy Governor Broadbent is unlikely to stray too far from the central BoE view.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 5.199 | +1.1 |
| May-24 | 5.147 | -4.1 |
| Jun-24 | 5.068 | -12.0 |
| Aug-24 | 4.916 | -27.2 |
| Sep-24 | 4.795 | -39.3 |
| Nov-24 | 4.627 | -56.1 |
| Dec-24 | 4.500 | -68.9 |
USD: Leaning in the green
Feb-20 07:34
- Very little change for the Dollar and G10 FX, with the Greenback leaning on the front foot, but pair/crosses are overall in tight ranges, EURUSD in 19 pips, Cable 19 pips, AUDUSD 20 pips.
- The Yen was and is again the worst early performer, although the Kiwi has now caught up, both down ~0.15% going into the European session.
- EURJPY is testing Yesterday's high, also the highest print since late November.
- Further upside momentum past 162.04, opens to 162.25 High Nov 29 next for the EURJPY.
BUNDS: Heavy early supply
Feb-20 07:20
- Very little changed for Bund and despite a tiny small gap higher, the 10yr Yield is still closer to its highest level since the start of December.
- Risk in futures remains to the downside, with support still eyed circa 132.58, followed by ~131.90 (2.50% in Yield).
- Resistance will at 133.15, Yesterday's high.
- There's no real tier 1 data for the session, ECB releases current account and Publishes Euro-Area Indicator of negotiated Wage rates.
- SUPPLY: Heavy supply with UK £1.75bn 2063 (equates to 32.3k Gilt) should weigh, German €5bn 2yr Schatz (equates to 54.1k Schatz) should weigh, Finland 2029, 2033 (won't impact Bonds).
- SYNDICATION: EU 10yr Benchmark.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Greene testify.
