EUROPEAN INFLATION: France Final HICP Upwardly Revised By 0.10pp; 0.92% Y/Y
France final April HICP was slightly upwardly revised from the flash estimate, by 0.10pp for both Y/...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Weaken Alongside Bunds; Q1 BLS Due Today
The Euribor strip has lightly twist flattened, with whites –1.0 to -2.0 ticks and blues +1.0 ticks. Futures have rolled over to fresh session lows over the past ~90 minutes, weakening a little alongside Bunds. The moves likely represent a degree of profit-taking following yesterday’s steady rally. Tariff concerns remain in focus - although President Trump signalled possible reprieve for auto producers ahead, levies on pharmaceuticals and chips/electronics remain likely in the coming weeks.
- Today’s Eurozone calendar is headlined by the Q1 Bank Lending Survey at 0900BST/1000CET. While it may come too late to impact Thursday’s rate decision (a 25bp cut is firmly expected and essentially fully priced in ECB-dated OIS), it will be an important gauge of the restrictiveness of ECB policy.
- As such, it will feed into discussions around the policy statement wording, after rates were described as “meaningfully less restrictive” back in March.
- OIS price 81bps of cuts priced through December, ~1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close.
- The German ZEW survey is also due at 1000BST. The expectations component is expected to drop sharply to 10.0 (vs 51.6 prior).
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.179 | -23.8 |
| Jun-25 | 2.002 | -41.5 |
| Jul-25 | 1.883 | -53.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.739 | -67.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.683 | -73.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.611 | -80.6 |
| Feb-26 | 1.589 | -82.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.584 | -83.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
SONIA: Call spread vs Put
SFIU5 96.35/96.70cs vs 95.75p, bought the cs for 3.25 in 3k (ref 96.185).
SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 2: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 1: $32.402 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $32.363 @ 08:08 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is holding on to its latest gains. For now, the recent move higher appears corrective. The metal on Apr 7, traded through support at $28.748, the Dec 19 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continued sell-off, towards $27.686, the Sep 6 ‘24 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is $32.213 the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would alter the picture and highlight a stronger reversal.
