BRAZIL: Foreign Minister Vieira To Discuss Trade With US’ Rubio Today
Oct-16 10:48
- The Brazilian outperformed yesterday, with USDBRL closing 0.5% lower at 5.4543, as President Lula confirmed that Brazil and the US will hold negotiation talks on tariffs today. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira is due to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington at 1900BST(1400ET). The talks come amid a thaw in Trump's rhetoric toward Brasilia since a brief meeting between the two leaders at the UN General Assembly last month.
- The move lower in USDBRL narrowed the gap to initial support at 5.3918, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, a clear break of 5.5012, the Sep 2 high, would open 5.6000 and above.
- On the data front, August economic activity figures cross at 1300BST(0800ET), with growth expected to have slowed to just 0.7% y/y, from 1.15% in July.
- Aug. Economic Activity YoY, est. 0.70%, prior 1.15%
- Aug. Economic Activity MoM, est. 0.70%, prior -0.53%
- Meanwhile, vice-president Geraldo Alckmin remains in India on a three-day trade mission, where he has announced that Petrobras will sign a new contract with India today.
- Elsewhere, BCB Governor Galipolo is in Washington for the IMF/World Bank annual meetings. He attends the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank presidents meeting at 1400BST(0900ET), followed by a meeting with PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng at 1700BST(1200ET) and a meeting with IMF First Deputy MD Dan Katz at 1930BST(1430ET).
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Extends
Sep-16 10:44
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract has started this week on a bullish note. Fresh cycle highs reinforce current bullish conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6700.00 handle next and 6712.33, a 1.764 projection of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing. Initial support to watch is 6559.62, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain firm. The contract has recently traded through the 20-day EMA - a bullish development. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme and signals potential for a climb towards 5522.0, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, support has been defined at 5292.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
FOREX: EUR Wrap – EURJPY Grinding Towards Double Top Resistance
Sep-16 10:41
- EURUSD’s steady approach to cycle highs at 1.1829 is garnering attention as we approach the Fed. SocGen have noted that the relatively low RSI compared to the move earlier in the year is a good sign and that the chances of a move to 1.20 this month have improved. They highlight that relative growth forecasts, relative rates, and the overall market backdrop are all on the euro’s side, for now.
- Wednesday’s Fed decision will keep short-term dollar sentiment as the primary driver for currency markets, however, the plethora of other major central bank decisions places heightened attention on a number of EUR crosses and their significant chart levels this week.
- As noted earlier, EURJPY (shown below) has been grinding towards double top resistance just below the 174 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86 (Fib projection) before 175.43, a key medium-term level. Japan’s leadership race heating up and the Bank of Japan decision due Friday provide obvious catalysts to a breakout.
- UK CPI data and the BOE decision Thursday will likely keep the market’s attention on GBP. For EURGBP specifically, the latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat.
- Fresh cycle highs for EURCAD on Monday continue to place the cross at the highest level since 2009. 1.6329 provides the next horizontal resistance point as we approach today’s Canada CPI and tomorrow’s BOC decision, where the central bank is expected to cut by 25bps.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
EU: INDIA-Next FTA Talks 6-10 Oct As Strategic Partnership Announcement Nears
Sep-16 10:39
A 14th round of trade talks between the EU and India will take place from 6-10 October, following the conclusion of the latest round on 12 Sep and with an expectation that the Union announces is plans for a strategic partnership with India in the near future. This follows the State of the Union address on 10 September from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where she said that in the context of US tariffs, and China's increasingly close relations with European adversaries in the forms of Russia and North Korea that, "...we need to double down on diversification and partnerships.[...] At a time when the global trading system is crumbling, we are securing the global rules through bilateral agreements. [...] Or finalising negotiations on a historic deal with India by the end of this year."
- As Euronews reported last week, the inclusion of food and farm issues (some of the most politically-charged issues for both the EU and India) in talks between trade delegations is a signal that discussions on a trade deal are nearing an end.
- The unveiling of a 'strategic partnership' between India and the EU comes at the time of significant uncertainty as to India's politicial and economic relations with the West. US President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India. While a post on Truth Social last week indicated a potential warming in ties, significant damage has been done to US-Indian ties, which the EU may look to take advantage on with regards to trade and investment.
