IRAN: Foreign Min Confirms E3 Talks Friday As US Denies 'Joint Venture' Proposal
May-14 10:18
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has confirmed that officials from Tehran will hold talks with counterparts from France, Germany, and the UK (the 'E3' countries) in Istanbul on Friday, 16 May, as part of the now-collapsed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the 2015 nuclear deal). Araghchi has said that the E3 nations are currently 'isolated' by the indirect talks between Iran and the US that have taken place in recent weeks, adding that he wants this to change.
- On 13 May, NYT reported that "Iran has proposed the creation of a joint nuclear-enrichment venture involving regional Arab countries and American investments as an alternative to Washington’s demand that it dismantle its nuclear program," The article claims that Araghchi presented the proposal to US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff during the fourth round of talks last weekend in Oman, a claim denied by a spox for Witkoff.
- NYT: "Iran’s proposal entails the establishment of a three-country nuclear consortium in which Iran would enrich uranium to a low grade, beneath that needed for nuclear weapons, and then ship it to other Arab countries for civilian use, [...] a major difference [to the JCPoA] would be the on-the-ground presence of representatives from other countries — perhaps even the United States — to provide an extra layer of oversight and involvement."
- It remains to be seen whether the US' approach of talking up a deal while threatening military consequences if no agreement is reached pushes Tehran towards notable concessions.
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US INFLATION: MNI US Inflation Insight: No Tariff Surge Realization In March
Apr-14 10:15
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a range of analyst core PCE estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2025_6247605af4.pdf
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest Option trades
Apr-14 10:11
- ERM5 98.00/98.12cs 1x1.5, sold the 1 at -0.5 in 6k.
- ERM5 97.75/97.87cs 1x1.5, bought the 2 for 4 in 6k.
SCANDIS: Improved Global Risk Sentiment Lends Support To NOK and SEK
Apr-14 10:10
Scandi FX outperform the G10 basket this morning, with temporary US tariff reprieve for electronic imports lending support to broader risk sentiment. EURSEK and EURNOK are each ~0.8% lower at typing.
- Following the recent US tariff inspired market volatility, SEB highlight that "NOK trades at higher implied vols than peers across the smile, with downside protection
more priced". They go on to note that "risk reversals confirm this, showing a stronger call bias in EURNOK and USDNOK vs SEK pairs". - In EURSEK, last week’s low at 10.8812 provides initial support, while a close above 11.2000 will be required to signal an extension of the corrective bull cycle that began on April 4.
- Swedish money market participant 5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations (released this morning) were steady at 2.3% in April, with PES unemployment data due on Wednesday. Main focus will be on tomorrow’s Spring budget bill (0700BST/0800CET), for which SEK11.5bln of expansionary measures have already been announced.
- EURNOK hovers just above the 12.0000 handle, which provides initial support before the prior breakout level of 11.8371 (March 5 high). Last Friday’s high of 12.2223 provides initial resistance.
- Light Norwegian calendar this week, with domestic markets closed from Wednesday afternoon for Easter.
