GOLD: Forecasters Running to Adjust Forecasts
Apr-01 21:41
- As the gold price hits levels that were (for many forecasters) a year end target, BofA is the first to flinch, suggesting that gold could reach US$3,500.
- Having hit $3,149.00 yesterday, gold retreated as profit taking set in and traders squared their positions ahead of the tariff announcements.
- Up 19% year to date, Gold has surged over 3% in three trading sessions, prior to the decline into the US market close.
- Demand for Gold ETFs remains strong with assets under management growing by over 5% this year.
- Gold’s rally is impacting markets globally with South African mining stocks putting in their best monthly performance on record in March.
- Wednesday sees the US President announcing wide ranging tariffs on ‘all’ of America’s trading partners, a move that inevitably will see counter measures and bring with it volatility.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
NZD: NZD/USD Drops 0.60% On Friday As Tariffs Near
Mar-02 21:40
- NZD/USD fell 0.60% on Friday, to 0.5598, however those moves came in the first half of the session before trading in a very narrow range for the remainder. The pair is facing challenges due to escalating global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding domestic monetary policy in New Zealand. The 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods effective March 4, and escalated tariffs on Chinese imports—now at 20% following an additional 10% levy tied to drug trafficking concerns, on top of a prior 10% tariff from February 4. Given China’s significance as New Zealand’s top trading partner, these developments put further pressure on the NZD.
- We are trading just on key support at 0.5600 after briefly breaking below it on Friday a clear break here would then open up a move to retest the Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside 0.5695/.5705 (20-, 50-Day EMA) are seen as key resistance, a break back above here would open a move to retest the ytd highs of 0.5769.
- Expiries 0.6350 (AUD411m), 0.6600 (AUD360.3m), 0.6310 (AUD300m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.6350 (AUD1.25b March 5), 0.6335 (AUD1.17b March 4), 0.6395 (AUD506.6m March 5)
- The CFTC reported a decline in speculative net positions on the NZD, dropping to -53.7K, from the previous -52.2K. This shift indicates a growing bearish sentiment among traders toward the NZD, possibly driven by increasing uncertainties or anticipated economic challenges in New Zealand.
- RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 87% chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May up from about 70% mid last week, with a cumulative 64bps of cut priced by November.
- The local calendar is quiet this week, with Building Permits tomorrow, and ANZ Commodity Price on Wednesday
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Monday
Mar-02 21:18
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Malaysia Feb S&P Global Malaysia PMI Mfg |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Thailand Feb S&P Global Thailand PMI Mfg |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Taiwan Feb S&P Global Taiwan PMI Mfg |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Indonesia Feb S&P Global Indonesia PMI Mfg |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Philippines Feb S&P Global Philippines PMI Mfg |
| 0145GMT | 0945HKT | 1245AEDT | China Feb Caixin China PMI Mfg |
| 0400GMT | 1200HKT | 1500AEDT | Indonesia Feb CPI |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | India Feb HSBC India PMI Mfg |
| 0730GMT | 1530HKT | 1830AEDT | Thailand Feb Business Sentiment Index |
| 0830GMT | 1630HKT | 1930AEDT | Hong Kong Jan Retail Sales |
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Monday
Mar-02 21:11
| 2145GMT | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand 4Q Terms of Trade Index |
| 2200GMT | 0600HKT | 0900AEDT | Australia Feb S&P Global Australia PMI Mfg |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Feb Melbourne Institute Inflation |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia 4Q Company Operating Profit |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Japan Feb Jibun Bank Japan PMI Mfg |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia Feb ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements |
| 0145GMT | 0945HKT | 1245AEDT | China Feb Caixin China PMI Mfg |
