US CREDIT UPDATE: Ford (F) Headlines on Novelis Fire from Yesterday

• +20,000 FVZ5 110.5/111.5 call spds, 10
• -15,000 TYZ5 114/116 call spds, 28

Semafor reports, “US corporations appear optimistic about the country’s economy, marking a turnaround from CEOs’ post-“Liberation Day” warnings. In this week’s slew of earnings reports, companies ranging from automakers (General Motors) to defense firms (Northrop Grumman) to consumer giants (Phillip Morris) raised their profit outlooks.” 

• Semafor continues, “The disclosures offer investors critical signals about the US’ economic health in the absence of government data during the federal shutdown. And thanks to a “resilient customer base,” spending is also likely to hold up during the upcoming Western holiday season, Walmart US’ CEO told Semafor last week. The upbeat reports have sent stocks to record highs, though analysts are watching whether the ongoing shutdown and Big Tech earnings next week could cool that momentum.”

Figure 1: US Consumer Sentiment Index

Source: Semafor, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Updating the analyst tables from the MNI US CPI Preview to include two more hawkish unrounded entries from Morgan Stanley and NatWest. 

• The median unrounded estimate shifts from 0.40 to 0.41% M/M for headline and from 0.30 to 0.32% M/M for core CPI in September.
• The latter narrows the expected moderation from what was a slight upward surprise of 0.35% M/M in August.