IRAN: For Min-No Return To Negotiations Until US Abandons 'Unreasonable Demands'
Oct-22 11:55
Semi-official outlet Tasnim reports comments from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding the state of relations with the United States. Speaking in Mashhad, Araghchi says, "The negotiations that were previously underway with the Americans, as well as the negotiations in New York, were halted and did not move forward due to the excessive demands of the American side. We will not return to the negotiating table until the Americans abandon their excessive policy and make unreasonable demands of us."
- The foreign minister's comments come days after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also rejected the notion of discussions with the US on present terms. State media reported Khamenei saying, "Trump says he is a dealmaker, but if a deal is accompanied by coercion and its outcome is predetermined, it is not a deal but rather an imposition and bullying." Khamenei also downplayed Trump's claims of destroying Iran's nuclear facilities.
- These comments come after US President Donald Trump talked up the prospect of resuming negotiations with Iran as he spoke to the Israeli Knesset in the aftermath of the agreement of a ceasefire in Gaza earlier in the month, claiming, "I'm telling you, they (Iran) want to make a deal."
- Speaking to Neue Zürcher Zeitung on 19 Oct, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said that he still believed the majority of Iran's enriched nuclear stockpile remains at known sites, downplaying speculation that the regime was able to hide significant quantities elsewhere before the US/Israeli strikes during the 12-Day War in June.
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BOE: All seven non-dissenting MPC members to speak before end of September (2/2)
Sep-22 11:41
- Outside of these three swing members we will also hear from Pill, Greene, Lombardelli and Mann before the end of the month. Their views will all be watched for the medium-term outlook, but with all four of these members hawkishly dissenting in August there is less potential for them to be market moving unless they were to shift to a more dovish direction (which we think unlikely at this point.
- Pill is due to appear on a BIS-ECB-SUERF panel today (starting 13:30BST) entitled ‘Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view’ and then will participate in a fireside chat tomorrow at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium ‘Challenges of Monetary Policy in an Environment of High Fiscal and Geopolitical Uncertainty (10:00BST). There will be text released alongside the latter event.
- Greene is due to speak on Wednesday in a speech entitled ‘Supply shocks and monetary policy’ (17:30).at University of Glasgow Business School.
- Lombardelli will appear on Tuesday 30 September on the “Monetary policy and uncertainty” panel alongside Riksbank Governor Thedéen and Banque de France Deputy Governor Bénassy-Quéré at the Bank of Finland’s 4th international Conference on Monetary Policy.
- Mann will conduct a fireside chat at the Financial Times Future of Financial Intelligence conference with the topic “Geopolitical landscape context”, also on Tuesday 30 September.
BOE: All seven non-dissenting MPC members to speak before end of September (1/2)
Sep-22 11:38
- All seven of the non-dissenting MPC members are due to make public appearances before the end of September. We will be in particular watching comments from the three MPC members who we think will be pivotal in determining whether we will see a Q4 cut (Bailey, Breeden and Ramsden).
- Governor Bailey will appear in a fireside chat today but the topic will be supervision in the financial sector – not the natural forum for comments on monetary policy. Bailey’s next public appearance is currently scheduled for Friday 3 October – but again that is on “Macro-financial stability in a fragmenting world”. It is a keynote speech at the Klass Knott farewell symposium so he may be more likely to speak on monetary policy here.
- Dave Ramsden will appear as a panellist on the policy panel at the ECB / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference” on Monday 29 September. Alongside him on the panel will be ECB Chief Economist Lane and the Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (2026 voting member). We place Ramsden as the most dovish member on the MPC who did not vote for a cut last week – and will be looking for confirmation of this next week.
- Deputy Governor Breeden rarely speaks on monetary policy but her speech scheduled for Tuesday 30 September at Cardiff University is provisionally entitled “The Monetary Policy Outlook”. This will certainly be a key speech. She sounded slightly more dovish than Governor Bailey in our view following her testimony ahead of the TSC on 3 June but hasn’t really spoken on monetary policy since. Her tone is likely to be pivotal for markets, particularly if she strikes a dovish tone given current market pricing.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Dec'25 10Y Call
Sep-22 11:23
- 50,000 TYZ5 114 calls ref 112-27, appears to be sale initiated, still bid
