FED: FOMC No Longer Getting Weekly ADP Payrolls Data: WSJ

Oct-22 17:32

The Wall Street Journal reports citing sources that the ADP has stopped providing the Fed with weekly data on private payrolls and earnings. 

  • Per the WSJ piece, the Fed has had access to the data since "at least 2018", and was available to the Fed with "a roughly one-week delay". The publicly-available ADP payrolls report is published monthly.
  • Recall that back in August, in calling for a September rate cut with more over the following 3-6 months, Gov Waller cited weakness in "timely data that Federal Reserve staff  maintains in collaboration with the employment services firm ADP to construct  a measure of weekly payroll employment...in the weeks after the July jobs report's reference
     period, preliminary estimates from ADP show continued deterioration". That was seen as a sign that the labor market may have been worse than indicated by publicly available government statistics.
  • According to the WSJ, "ADP stopped providing its data to the Fed shortly after a speech by Fed governor Christopher Waller in late August drew attention to the Fed's longstanding use of its weekly payroll data, according to a person familiar with the matter. It couldn't be learned what prompted the change. The Fed's use of ADP data wasn't a new revelation."
  • Indeed, a Fed staff article on the topic from 2019 is here
  • If the WSJ's report is correct, the upshot is that the Fed will more or less be relying on most of the same labor market data as the rest of us in making its decision on a cut next week, and potentially for the upcoming meetings - suggesting it's wading through even foggier territory in assessing current labor market conditions.

Historical bullets

US TSY OPTIONS: Update: 10Y Calls

Sep-22 17:30
  • over -7,500 TYX5 113.5/114.5/115.5 1x3x2 call flys, collecting 2 on the package (total volume on the 114.5 call over 40k)
  • Meanwhile, over +155,000 TYV5 114 calls, 31-33 ref 112-27 to -24.5

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $4.5B Dell 4Pt Launched

Sep-22 17:19
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 09/22 $4.5B #Dell $750M +3Y +58, $1.25B +5Y +80, $1.25B 7Y +90, $1.25B +10Y +100
  • 09/22 $1.5B #Royal Caribbean 10Y +125
  • 09/22 $1.5B #CBA $750M each: 5Y +45, 5Y SOFR+78
  • 09/22 $1.2B #Aercap Ireland $600M each 5Y +75, 10Y +97
  • 09/22 $900M #AEP Texas $150M 2034 Tap +97, $750M 30Y +112
  • 09/22 $700M Mineral Resources 5.5NC2.5 7.25%a
  • 09/22 $500M #Isbank WNG 10.5NC5.5 7.375%
  • 09/22 $500M Science Applications 8NC3
  • 09/22 $Benchmark Broadcom 5Y +85, +10Y +100, +12Y +110a
  • 09/22 $Benchmark Korea National Oil 3Y fix/SOFR, 5Y
  • 09/22 $Benchmark Embraer Netherlands +12Y +155a

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer Thursday (MEF issues correction)

Sep-22 17:08
  • Italy will look to sell E6.5bln of the new 6-month Mar 31, 2026 BOT at its auction on Thursday 25 September.
  • As we noted earlier - it seemed like it was a typo on the original MEF press release which stated that the auction was on Friday 26 September. The MEF has now sent a correction so the auction will be held on the originally scheduled Thursday 25 September.