FED: FOMC Minutes Eyed For Majority's View On "Transitory" Inflation (1/2)

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/28 $5B #Alphabet  $750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70
• 04/28 $2B #Keurig Dr Pepper $500M each: 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
• 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
• 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
• 04/28 $1.1B #CBRE Services $600M 5Y +120, $500M 10Y +135
• 04/28 $700M *Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
• 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
• 04/28 $500M #Colgate Palmolive 5Y +38
• 04/28 $500M #DR Horton +5Y +103
• 04/28 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75, 10Y +93
• 04/28 $Benchmark Procter & Gamble 5Y +55a, 10Y +70a
• 04/28 $Benchmark General Dynamics 10Y +110a
• 04/28 $Benchmark World Bank 3Y +38a, 7Y +57a

The dollar has traded on the backfoot Monday amid a bull steepening move for treasuries and renewed modest pressure on major US equity benchmarks. This has particularly benefitted the Japanese yen and Swiss Franc, while GBP is also among the best performers in G10. A lack of concrete details surrounding the US administration’s progress on trade deals has allowed the broader dollar weakening trend to resume, although the plethora of data this week and month-end could provide obstacles to short-term sentiment.

For USDJPY, tests of the 144 handle have capped the topside for now, and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. As such, USDJPY has been edging steadily lower across Monday, printing fresh session lows around 142.40 as we approach the APAC crossover. Key short-term technical parameters are seen at 144.47, the 20-day EMA, and 139.89, last week’s low.

USDCHF held the prior breakdown point well last week around 0.8333 and late weakness towards the 0.82 mark also appears to be confirming last week’s pullback as corrective.

GBPUSD is notably back above 1.34 and spot trades in close proximity to the 1.3424 bull trigger (as well as 1.3434, the Sept'24 high). This is a key medium-term area for cable and it will be eagerly monitored in coming sessions. Further strength would signal scope for a move towards 1.3500 Round number resistance and 1.3550, the Feb 24 ’22 high.

Price action has prompted EURGBP to trade through a major support area we flagged last week at 0.8520-31 - marking both the early April pullback low as well as the 50% retracement of the tariff-inspired upleg off 0.8323.

Downward pressure on equities has relatively hindered the progress for the likes of EUR, AUD and NZD. However, EURUSD is pushing back above 1.14 in late trade and AUDUSD is within 20 pips of a cluster of highs from last week around 0.6435, which represent four-month highs for the pair.

Eurozone inflation data kicks off Tuesday, and in the US, JOLTS and consumer confidence data are highlights.

• Fund funds implied rates have continued to roll over.
• The Jun’25 implied rate has recently stepped lower after some stickiness today whilst the Dec’25 implied rate is now 4bp lower on the day after a 7bp intraday decline.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp for next week, 18bp Jun, 39bp Jul, 59bp Sep and 93bp Dec.
• SOFR implied yields are currently as much as 10.5bp lower on the day (Z6), with the terminal yield of 3.03% (U6) now 37bp below pre Apr 2 tariff announcement levels.
• SFRU6 at 96.980 is through 96.970 on Apr 21 for highs since late Apr 8/early Apr 9, i.e. prior to the 90-day tariff pause announcement.
• There have been little new headlines behind the move although equity futures have more than reversed gains initially seen on some optimism of some trade deal traction with Bessent’s appearance with White House Secretary Leavitt tomorrow at 0830ET.
• There has also been some steepener flow and outright buying in the belly in Treasuries today.
• Tomorrow’s data see the advanced March trade report before JOLTS and the Conference Board consumer survey. We also see earnings from Coca Cola, GM, Kraftz, Paypal, Pfizer, Booking, Starbucks, UPS and Visa.