FED: FOMC Minutes: Analysts Eye Discussion Of July Cut, Tariff Inflation (2/3)

Below is a selection of analyst expectations for the June FOMC minutes. Main areas of attention are the nascent splint in the Committee over the transitory nature of tariffs; any discussion over a July rate cut; and any further details on the findings of the framework review.

• BMO FICC: "We struggle to envision the Fed offering anything off-message in light of the ongoing uncertainties associated with the trade war and potential reflationary implications. Wait-and-see will be the message even as the market appears poised to push back on the notion that policy rates can remain at current levels for an indefinite period of time."
• Citi: "should highlight the divergences in views among Fed officials that are apparent in the SEP dot plot....will reflect that the majority of the committee thinks there is no rush to cut in the near term, but that cuts are still likely later this year. Recently slower inflation should be characterized as encouraging, but with Fed officials waiting for more data to assess the impact of higher tariffs on inflation."
• Deutsche: "divisions were laid bare in Fedspeak since the meeting, with two officials – Governors Waller and Bowman – indicating that a July rate cut was a real possibility prior to the stronger-than-expected June jobs report. We expect the minutes to provide further details on the extent of these divisions."
• Mizuho: "The Fed minutes from the June meeting should lean more hawkish...we think absent the unusual flip of Governor Bowman (former hawk turned dove, Supervision Chair), the Fed dots would have moved to 1 cut in 2025. In general, the discussion should lean in a hawkish direction vis-à-vis inflation risks."
• Morgan Stanley: "We will look for any signs as to what is motivating the bifurcation in the dots - those with no cuts for this year versus those with two cuts. Powell has emphasized he expects to see tariff impacts on inflation over the summer. Any signs as to when members in each of these two camps expect to have more clarity, and
  how willing they will be to change their minds, would be useful. Is lack of inflationary pressure enough to resume the cutting cycle, or do we need to see an increase in the unemployment rate?"
• TD: "likely to highlight uncertainty around the outlook and wide-ranging policy views, [but] we believe they are unlikely to expand on post-meeting Fedspeak.... we could see a "couple" or "few" participants highlight the potential for cuts in the next meeting.... The minutes could also note at least "a few" or "several" participants arguing that rates could stay on hold for longer due to the risk of persistent inflation, reflecting the views of Hammack, Kashkari, and Kugler (to name a few). Key to note in the minutes will be participants' view on the inflation outlook."
• UBS: "Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller both put a July rate cut on the table after the meeting. That would be interesting to see in meeting minutes, in particular if concern over the slowing in the labor market was more widespread than Chair Powell's press conference let on....how the FOMC may be looking through or consider the potential tariff inflation a one-time shift in the price level could be important for seeing how their reaction function may be evolving.