HUNGARY: Focus for Hungary Remains on Outcome of US-Russia Talks

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6552 @ 07:58 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.6535 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6487/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend plus maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6487, the 50-day EMA.

A tick higher in core global FI futures here, but little in the way of concrete news. Bunds pierce overnight highs and yesterday’s best levels.

• Comes as oil ticks lower and the bid in equities stalls with session highs in both S&P 500 e-minis and Euro Stoxx 50 futures intact.
• Scope for some pre-U.S. CPI adjustments evident, although always hard to confirm when such flow is being executed

The broader BBDXY has moved away from fresh July highs registered in Asia hours.

• This comes as e-minis trade on the front foot after Nvidia flagged the restart of some chip sales to China, receiving approval from U.S. policymakers to do so.
• Elsewhere, mixed Chinese GDP and monthly economic activity data and softer mainland China equity indices supported USD/CNH, limiting USD losses to some degree.
• EUR/USD holds above initial support at the 20-day EMA (1.1661), after a test overnight.
• Note that GBP/USD breached trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low (1.3430) but has since retaken that level. A more convincing break would strengthen the short-term bearish case.
• German ZEW data is due this morning, but it will be the U.S. CPI release that garners the bulk of the macro attention.
• It’s possible that June’s U.S. CPI report will only be starting to show the delayed impact from the April reciprocal tariffs with the largest impact perhaps only to be seen in July. There appears a rough consensus of three months from tariff implementation to more notable consumer price increases.
• Our full data preview is here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jul2025_07eaecc8d6.pdf
• Canadian CPI is also due.
• Elsewhere, Fedspeak from Bowman, Barr, Barkin and Collins is due throughout the day, while UK Chancellor Reeves & BoE Governor Bailey will speak at the Mansion House event this evening.