IRAN: FM Denies Receipt Of US Proposal, Says 'No Scenario' To End Enrichment
In a post (in English) on X, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denies Iran has received any nuclear deal proposal from the US. Full post: "Iran has not received any written proposal from the United States, whether directly or indirectly. In the meantime, the messaging we—and the world—continue to receive is confusing and contradictory. Iran nonetheless remains determined and straightforward: Respect our rights and terminate your sanctions, and we have a deal. Mark my words: there is no scenario in which Iran abandons its hard-earned right to enrichment for peaceful purposes: a right afforded to all other NPT signatories, too. The Great Iranian Nation has shown its Power and Fortitude in the face of those who have attempted imposition. We ALWAYS welcome dialogue based on mutual respect and ALWAYS reject any diktat."
- Speaking earlier in the day aboard Air Force One, US President Donald Trump said that “...We’re not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran. I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this, But most importantly, they know they have to move quickly, or something bad is going to happen.”
- A day earlier, on 15 May, Trump said at a business rountable in Qatar that “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace, And if we do that, it’ll be fantastic. Iran has sort of agreed to the terms, We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal.”
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-12 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-25 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 111-09+ High Apr 16
- PRICE: 111-04+ @ 16:50 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 110-15+/109-08 Low Apr 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
Treasury futures traded higher this week. The climb has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and the contract is retracing the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 11. The next resistance to watch is 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- USD/CAD: Apr22 C$1.4315($1.0bln), C$1.4400($1.2bln)
GBP: Fails to Benefit From Late FTSE Rally
- GBP/USD's early outperformance has reversed through the London close, with the pair back to flat having traded with gains of as much as ~65 pips at the NY crossover.
- The 15-minute candle chart shows the drift off highs today has put price through the uptrendline support drawn off the Apr09 low, which had helped dictate the early upside to 1.3292.
- Further slippage toward 1.3163 would mark the 23.6% retracement of the Trump U-turn rally - and would still leave the pair over 3% higher vs the pullback low.
- GBP rallied alongside equities and risk following the 90-day tariff reprieve headlines, however GBP has not seen support from the late rally in the FTSE-100 today, which added over 1% off the day's lows on a sharp 50 point rally in the last hour of trade.
- EUR/GBP strength off lows today partially snaps the sharp weakness seen off the April high - confirming the latest pullback in cross as corrective. A resumption of gains would open 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection point.
